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Highlights: No econ reports or Fed speakers are yet scheduled for the new week. Tuesday’s calendar isn’t much busier or higher profile.

NO REPORTS SCHEDULED

Highlights: This week’s econ reports finally get interesting with Thursday’s busy calendar. It includes several high-profile and reliably influential reports, including the Fed Chair and other Fed speakers. Any noticeable price reaction to pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports.

International Trade
8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET

*Jerome Powell Speaks
8:30 AM ET

Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

*Raphael Bostic Speaks
10:45 AM ET

*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET

*Charles Evans Speaks
1:15 PM ET

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging narrowly around 1.1235 resistance overnight dipping Tuesday. But having completed a pullback that held 1.1200, the pattern remains vulnerable to almost literally exploding higher.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap down came from a position of strength, since Monday’s post-open dip to 1278.00 had recovered into positive territory. Tuesday’s recovery probed above Monday’s highs, attacking Sunday night’s 1287.00 highs with no excuse not to trend higher.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down to 14.81 and its immediate reversal up stopped short of filling the gap back to Monday’s 14.94 close, which was similar to Monday’s gap down. Both sessions were also inside days, biased-upward, which tends to resolve bearishly if not rejected by gapping up sharply.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks once again triggered a flight-to-safety that gapped up to the recent intraday range’s upper-end at 148-06 and then extended to test the 148-24 recent overnight high as stocks fell further. Back under 147-24 and 147-14 would signal the trend reversing down, which should then develop aggressively.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s recovery reacted by trending down overnight to gap down Tuesday, and then dip deeper. Closing above 61.50 would suggest the dip had been absorbed, but under 60.50 would signal a new downleg underway. Wednesday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday and flat-to-higher ranging still stopped short of recovering the 2.56 buy signal, but at least creates potential to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.

Highlights: The only econ report of any consequence to price action Wednesday is the EIA, which is influences price action indirectly through a Crude Oil reaction.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s stock market volatility and even Crude Oil volatility was ignored as Friday’s bounce simply maintained 1.1235 resistance. Its break should have little difficulty exceeding 1.1250 if the bottoming is valid.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up and probing Friday’s high Sunday night up to 1287.50 struggled to maintain and ultimately reversed back into negative territory at 1278.00, but still recovered into positive territory above 1281.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely blipping-up Sunday night to 15.00 reacted down into negative territory at 14.77, but recovered the 14.82 buy signal. Any recovery at all is problematic with a fresh low close outstanding under 14.55.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Stock market collapse triggered a flight-to-safety and a gap up to 148-06 within prior price action. Probing higher to 148-24 was reversed back down to 147-21, which should break along with 147-14 to signal the bounce was only a detour and that 145-24 remains in-play.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Economic weakness anticipated by escalating the China trade war had triggered a gap down Sunday night under Thursday’s 60.95 low to 60.05. Perhaps the other news of US battleship assets being moved closer to Iran helped price recover back to unchanged at 62.00, and then into positive territory at 62.75 and easily positioned to trigger the 63.25 buy signal Tuesday if a bottom has formed.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow unchanged ranging around 2.56 Sunday night suddenly broke lower Monday to test 2.51, still having room down to 2.49 before suggesting the recent rally is just being corrected but reversed.

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Highlights: The week’s slow start to econ reports is sort of interrupted by Tuesday’s Jobs Openings data, which can either confirm Friday’s big number or refute it. Any bullish reaction should be only temporary, if not already fully discounted. While contradicting Friday’s number could surprise the rally.

Robert Kaplan Speaks
7:00 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET

Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET

I did discuss this week’s most interesting feature, which developed among consecutive timing window trending attempts. Not that trending hasn’t been attempted by consecutive timing windows, but they have been intraday. This week saw two instances of those timing windows overlapping two sessions, which reflects a greater persistence by its sponsorship. So, it’s also interesting to note those attempts trended down.

Another interesting feature this week was the wider ranging. None of which is a sell signal, especially since those attempts were recovered and “unfinished business” remains outstanding above. But known catalysts are all but gone, so something big must appear on the horizon to prevent or protect against another deeper reversal down.

We review that and more during this weekend’s Saturday Review.

CLICK HERE TO WATCH

The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
DB, EA, PZZA, CS, DIS, ROKU, TTD, BKNG, ETSY, JD, MAR, GOOGL, AAPL

transcript

—————– (05/04/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.

jp 2: gm

Mark G: gm

Bill G: gm

lloyd: gm. hi rod. still seeing an issue with the past 2 sat review recordings on iOS with the puffin browser. it wont play the sat review, but it does play morning/close recordings…strange. i will update to latest ios this weekend to see if it fixes it.

lloyd: and let you know.

lloyd: yes. works on morning/afternoon recordings

lloyd: link might be slightly different… i se crf_token in the weekend url.

lloyd: thx.
—————– (05/04/2019 09:47) —————–
lloyd: can you have a blog section of “open” unifinished business levels?
—————– (05/04/2019 09:50) —————–
lloyd: sounds good.
—————– (05/04/2019 10:02) —————–
Mark G: DB

lloyd: stocks: EA, PZZA (both earnings tues after close)DIS, ROKU (wed earnings)TTD, BKNG, ETSY (thurs earnings)JD,MAR (fri earnings)

Mark G: CS
—————– (05/04/2019 10:05) —————–
Mark G: complex triangle?

Bill G: complex triangle
—————– (05/04/2019 10:13) —————–
Mark G: any timeframe expectation to get extend to 69 on EA?
—————– (05/04/2019 10:23) —————–
Mark G: did you say ADR?
—————– (05/04/2019 10:26) —————–
Mark G: k
—————– (05/04/2019 10:36) —————–
lloyd: thurs

Mark G: EA in a position of weakness prior to Tue earnings or maybe too early to call?

lloyd: TTD: any good pullback entry if it drops?

lloyd: looking to be a pullback buyer
—————– (05/04/2019 10:38) —————–
Mark G: no was just asswering your pattern Q
—————– (05/04/2019 10:46) —————–
lloyd: quick review of GOOGL and AAPL post earnings

Mark G: EA in a position of weakness prior to Tue earnings or maybe too early to call?
—————– (05/04/2019 11:02) —————–
lloyd: thanks for the stocks today!

Mark G: thx much

Bill G: thanks

lloyd: i liked he post earnings review too!

Rod David: ;

Rod David: ;)