Saturday Review – If, Then… Market Timing

Saturday Review’s recording (for 5/4/19) …A weak position of strength.

Rod David — Sat, 04 May 2019 17:11:33 +0000

SPECIAL NOTE: I didn’t mention the CME’s planned introduction this week of “Micro-minis” (MES) having one-tenth the notional value of the E-mini (ES). I’ll continue charting and discussing the ES, because patterns and strategies should be identical.

I did discuss this week’s most interesting feature, which developed among consecutive timing window trending attempts. Not that trending hasn’t been attempted by consecutive timing windows, but they have been intraday. This week saw two instances of those timing windows overlapping two sessions, which reflects a greater persistence by its sponsorship. So, it’s also interesting to note those attempts trended down.

Another interesting feature this week was the wider ranging. None of which is a sell signal, especially since those attempts were recovered and “unfinished business” remains outstanding above. But known catalysts are all but gone, so something big must appear on the horizon to prevent or protect against another deeper reversal down.

We review that and more during this weekend’s Saturday Review.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
DB, EA, PZZA, CS, DIS, ROKU, TTD, BKNG, ETSY, JD, MAR, GOOGL, AAPL

transcript

—————– (05/04/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.

jp 2: gm

Mark G: gm

Bill G: gm

lloyd: gm. hi rod. still seeing an issue with the past 2 sat review recordings on iOS with the puffin browser. it wont play the sat review, but it does play morning/close recordings…strange. i will update to latest ios this weekend to see if it fixes it.

lloyd: and let you know.

lloyd: yes. works on morning/afternoon recordings

lloyd: link might be slightly different… i se crf_token in the weekend url.

lloyd: thx.
—————– (05/04/2019 09:47) —————–
lloyd: can you have a blog section of “open” unifinished business levels?
—————– (05/04/2019 09:50) —————–
lloyd: sounds good.
—————– (05/04/2019 10:02) —————–
Mark G: DB

lloyd: stocks: EA, PZZA (both earnings tues after close)DIS, ROKU (wed earnings)TTD, BKNG, ETSY (thurs earnings)JD,MAR (fri earnings)

Mark G: CS
—————– (05/04/2019 10:05) —————–
Mark G: complex triangle?

Bill G: complex triangle
—————– (05/04/2019 10:13) —————–
Mark G: any timeframe expectation to get extend to 69 on EA?
—————– (05/04/2019 10:23) —————–
Mark G: did you say ADR?
—————– (05/04/2019 10:26) —————–
Mark G: k
—————– (05/04/2019 10:36) —————–
lloyd: thurs

Mark G: EA in a position of weakness prior to Tue earnings or maybe too early to call?

lloyd: TTD: any good pullback entry if it drops?

lloyd: looking to be a pullback buyer
—————– (05/04/2019 10:38) —————–
Mark G: no was just asswering your pattern Q
—————– (05/04/2019 10:46) —————–
lloyd: quick review of GOOGL and AAPL post earnings

Mark G: EA in a position of weakness prior to Tue earnings or maybe too early to call?
—————– (05/04/2019 11:02) —————–
lloyd: thanks for the stocks today!

Mark G: thx much

Bill G: thanks

lloyd: i liked he post earnings review too!

Rod David: ;

Rod David: ;)

Saturday Review Link

Rod David — Sat, 04 May 2019 13:15:22 +0000

Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!

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Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/27/19) …Eke.

Rod David — Sat, 27 Apr 2019 17:11:14 +0000

The week got off to a slow start, albeit absorbing a gap down coming out of the weekend. Tuesday morning’s rally was also the week’s rally, representing its only uptrend. Everything that followed was hesitation, backing-and-filling, and retracing. Until one hour before Friday’s close, which rallied again.

This week’s Review discusses how we knew from Tuesday’s surge and then from subsequent price action that fresh highs were still coming. We also discuss how that subsequent price action already defines any further probe of fresh highs, and what Friday’s new trend high close means, and doesn’t mean.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, GOOGL, GE, TSLA, XLNX, BIIB

transcript

—————– (04/27/2019 09:32) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.

David B: Good Morning
—————– (04/27/2019 09:57) —————–
Adam: Is the distribution from a few weeks ago still relevant for a bigger picture top forming?
—————– (04/27/2019 10:00) —————–
David B: was that distribution pattern since the market has rallied were those strong hands wrong?
—————– (04/27/2019 10:11) —————–
David B: GOOGL,GE
—————– (04/27/2019 10:16) —————–
David B: TSLA

David B: was 250 a key level broken in resuming the downtrend?
—————– (04/27/2019 10:23) —————–
David B: XLNK

David B: is this similiar like biogen
—————– (04/27/2019 10:32) —————–
David B: yes
—————– (04/27/2019 10:33) —————–
David B: its was the right stock

David B: do you see a melt up?

David B: for the market

David B: good employment report?
—————– (04/27/2019 10:35) —————–
David B: that is what i’m talking about multiple sessions
—————– (04/27/2019 10:37) —————–
David B: Thanks

Bill G: thanks

Saturday Review Link

Rod David — Sat, 27 Apr 2019 13:29:45 +0000

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Saturday Review Link

Rod David — Sat, 27 Apr 2019 13:02:18 +0000

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Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/13/19) …No man is an island. Was Friday?

Rod David — Sat, 13 Apr 2019 17:11:22 +0000

Friday’s gap up from a multi-session flat-to-higher range was a breakout. Closing (almost) at the opening print suggests Friday’s trending was no different than the multi-session range preceding it. What does that mean for the rally, how might it resolve, and what are the signs of each setup? This week’s Saturday Review addresses those questions, and many great questions posed by attendees.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WFC, JPM, BAC, GS, MS, NFLX, CSX, MMM, T, IBM UTX, SYMC, BIIB, PEP, TEAM, LVS, ISRG, HON

transcript

—————– (04/13/2019 09:31) —————–
Adam 2: hi
—————– (04/13/2019 09:33) —————–
jp: gm

ljr: gm

David B: Good Morning

Adam 2: gm

Rod David 2: Welcome to Saturday Review, please post questions and comments as they occur to you.

Bill G 2: gm

ljr: wondering if there is a globex gap that needs tested from below

Mark G: gm
—————– (04/13/2019 09:48) —————–
ljr: seems like lots of people think this can’t keep going and things are frothy… also seems timely for all these new ipos at a potential top
—————– (04/13/2019 09:52) —————–
Bill G 2: Fri open still needs to be tested from below?
—————– (04/13/2019 09:58) —————–
Mark G: are we in a sequence of 10 up days with 1 or 2 counter-trends and early next week might be a resolution?

ljr: we’re so close to all time highs… seems like we “should” at least touch them
—————– (04/13/2019 10:03) —————–
ljr: i guess it turned out to fridays open

ljr: the globex gap
—————– (04/13/2019 10:04) —————–
David B: when a top starts to form is usually the dow outperforms.?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:06) —————–
Mark G: looks more like a range even though pointed higher

David B: earnings have been lowered so much it seems like companies beating will continue this market higher?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:10) —————–
Mark G: can 2928 qualify as proxy for 2941?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:17) —————–
Bill G 2: In regards to David’s question on tops: several years ago Jason at Sentimentrader did a study to test the order of major major indexes reaching tops and found no consistency to which index hit top first.
—————– (04/13/2019 10:20) —————–
ljr: any changes to expiry/wedex this week?

ljr: stocks: NFLX,CSX,IBM, UTX (earnings tues)

ljr: stocks: PEP, TEAM, LVS (earning wed)

ljr: stocks: ISRG, HON (earn thurs)

ljr: i have to go, but will watch rest of recording later

ljr: thc

ljr: thx

Mark G: Nxt being a short week would you expect a down turn to happen early enough like by Tue afternoon if it intends to happennext week?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:24) —————–
David B: this week with the market closed on friday and options expiration does the wedex play out on thursday afternoon and monday morning?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:30) —————–
David B: MMM,T
—————– (04/13/2019 10:39) —————–
David B: MMM has not reallly participated in the market rally is that a concern?
—————– (04/13/2019 10:41) —————–
David B: same concern

David B: T

David B: SYMC,BIIB
—————– (04/13/2019 11:04) —————–
Bill G 2: Thanks

David B: Thanks

Saturday Review Link

Rod David — Sat, 13 Apr 2019 11:27:10 +0000

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Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/6/19) …The upside of topping.

Rod David — Sat, 06 Apr 2019 17:11:24 +0000

What was that strong-handed distribution about three weeks ago? Whatever it saw on the horizon has yet to arrive, but the quarterly earnings onslaught begins this week. Will a China trade deal trigger a final high, first? During? Rallying day-to-day to higher highs is camouflaging the net-flat intraday action, which itself reflects the rally’s anxiousness. None of which prevents higher highs.

This week’s Saturday Review describes the original distribution, and recent distributive behavior. Further rally potential and the face of its failure are also described.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
CVGW, BBBY, AMD, BIIB, JPM, WFC, XLNX, WDC, CY

transcript

Saturday Review Link

Rod David — Sat, 06 Apr 2019 13:04:05 +0000

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Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/30/19) …Up, up, and a wait.

Rod David — Sat, 30 Mar 2019 17:11:50 +0000

End ‘o-Quarter portfolio window dressing was probably influential on the quarter’s last day Friday. But gapping up to resistance and only ranging sideways doesn’t reflect momentum, and remains vulnerable to resolving down immediately. None of which precludes extending higher anyway, but probably only to the next resistance and only temporarily before resolving down more substantially.

I describe the path higher, along with specifics for the scenarios described above, in this weekend’s Saturday Review. Great questions from attendees are also addressed.

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The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WBA, STZ, BIIB, XLNX, VKTX, AAPL, APH, LEN, SQ, LUV

transcript

Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post comments and questions as they occur to you.

David B: Good Morning

jp: gm

Bill G: gm
—————– (03/30/2019 09:33) —————–
Mark G: gm
—————– (03/30/2019 10:02) —————–
ljr iPhone: does this type of distribution resemble sept/oct before drop into dec?
—————– (03/30/2019 10:06) —————–
jp: Did Fri. close satisfy o/b rsi’s ?

jp: ty
—————– (03/30/2019 10:11) —————–
David B: how do you think earnings will play into the market? have they been discounted?

ljr iPhone: stocks: WBA, STZ both earnings this week
—————– (03/30/2019 10:13) —————–
Bill G: Blackout period for buybacks may influence for most of Apr?

David B: do you think this distribution is reflecting a sell on the news of possible china deal ?
—————– (03/30/2019 10:17) —————–
David B: the market is closed on good friday so when does options expiration happen?

David B: when does options expire?

David B: ok

David B: BIIB,XLNX
—————– (03/30/2019 10:20) —————–
David B: so does that change the wedex?
—————– (03/30/2019 10:22) —————–
ljr iPhone: VKTX (just watching for long entry), aapl, SQ (more Apple competition now)

David B: APH,LEN
—————– (03/30/2019 10:24) —————–
ljr iPhone: dunno
—————– (03/30/2019 10:34) —————–
ljr iPhone: LUV
—————– (03/30/2019 11:00) —————–
ljr iPhone: Boeing 737 grounded

ljr iPhone: not really positive
—————– (03/30/2019 11:03) —————–
ljr iPhone: thx very much

David B: Thanks

Bill G: thanks