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Ranging narrowly around 1.1235 resistance overnight dipping Tuesday. But having completed a pullback that held 1.1200, the pattern remains vulnerable to almost literally exploding higher.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap down came from a position of strength, since Monday’s post-open dip to 1278.00 had recovered into positive territory. Tuesday’s recovery probed above Monday’s highs, attacking Sunday night’s 1287.00 highs with no excuse not to trend higher.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down to 14.81 and its immediate reversal up stopped short of filling the gap back to Monday’s 14.94 close, which was similar to Monday’s gap down. Both sessions were also inside days, biased-upward, which tends to resolve bearishly if not rejected by gapping up sharply.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks once again triggered a flight-to-safety that gapped up to the recent intraday range’s upper-end at 148-06 and then extended to test the 148-24 recent overnight high as stocks fell further. Back under 147-24 and 147-14 would signal the trend reversing down, which should then develop aggressively.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s recovery reacted by trending down overnight to gap down Tuesday, and then dip deeper. Closing above 61.50 would suggest the dip had been absorbed, but under 60.50 would signal a new downleg underway. Wednesday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday and flat-to-higher ranging still stopped short of recovering the 2.56 buy signal, but at least creates potential to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Sunday night’s stock market volatility and even Crude Oil volatility was ignored as Friday’s bounce simply maintained 1.1235 resistance. Its break should have little difficulty exceeding 1.1250 if the bottoming is valid.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up and probing Friday’s high Sunday night up to 1287.50 struggled to maintain and ultimately reversed back into negative territory at 1278.00, but still recovered into positive territory above 1281.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Barely blipping-up Sunday night to 15.00 reacted down into negative territory at 14.77, but recovered the 14.82 buy signal. Any recovery at all is problematic with a fresh low close outstanding under 14.55.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Stock market collapse triggered a flight-to-safety and a gap up to 148-06 within prior price action. Probing higher to 148-24 was reversed back down to 147-21, which should break along with 147-14 to signal the bounce was only a detour and that 145-24 remains in-play.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Economic weakness anticipated by escalating the China trade war had triggered a gap down Sunday night under Thursday’s 60.95 low to 60.05. Perhaps the other news of US battleship assets being moved closer to Iran helped price recover back to unchanged at 62.00, and then into positive territory at 62.75 and easily positioned to trigger the 63.25 buy signal Tuesday if a bottom has formed.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow unchanged ranging around 2.56 Sunday night suddenly broke lower Monday to test 2.51, still having room down to 2.49 before suggesting the recent rally is just being corrected but reversed.
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The pullback had a little extra room down to 1.1200 and it was probed before Friday’s open down to 1.1175. But the morning recovered it and continued firming back into positive territory at downtrending resistance at 1.1235. Not resuming the pullback will allow a bottoming pattern to form.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s plunge from a multi-session range had held prior lows, recovering an intraday probe of fresh lows testing 1267.50 to help trap shorts, but not decisively recovering 1271.50. Rallying in reaction to the Employment Situation report extended sharply higher to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s 1284.00 close. A second consecutive higher close on Monday could seal a bottom.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Two consecutive sharply lower drops down to 14.56, confirming Wednesday’s breakout from a multi-session range, didn’t prevent Friday’s Employment Situation reaction from surging back into that broken range up to 15.00. The original 14.88 buy signal and adjusted 14.81 buy signal were recovered, so a second consecutive higher close Monday must be avoided to resume the requirement for at least an eventual fresh low close.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report touched 146-21 and bounced back up to “higher prior lows” at 147-21. But greeting the report from a position of weakness suggests the bounce will be rejected back under the 147-04 sell signal to resume the next downleg targeting 145-24.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Friday up to 62.50 remained under the 63.25 buy signal, which must still trigger to reinstate the 67.00 target.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming overnight to further test 2.61 was retraced by Friday’s open by a dip testing 2.55 support. The pullback is still likely to resolve up and trigger another buy signal.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The backing-and-filling stage had begun almost immediately Wednesday upon testing 1.1300 resistance, reversing down to 1.1240 support at the pattern’s lower-end. It extended deeper Thursday, still having room a little lower to 1.1205.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s outperformance compensated for its delay in also sliding, by gapping down to two-week old lows and probing fresh lows attacking 1267.00. The fresh low’s recovery to close back above 1271.50 is essentially the bullish scenario described during the pre-open Market Tour. It wasn’t recovered, but still being overlapped into the close.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap down under Wednesday’s low — regardless of how substantial either session dipped, let alone both — confirmed Wednesday’s breakout from the two prior days’ multi-session range. No buy signal or recovery will be credible until at least one more lower close is produced.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already dipping back down Wednesday to Friday’s highs that had held a test of “higher prior lows” and the gap-fill above, Thursday slid deeper to test the 147-04 sell signal. The original 146-30 sell signal was also being tested, again, which is the last opportunity to break lower.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s dip had allowed lowering the buy signal to 63.75, but dipping overnight back down to Wednesday’s 62.75 low gapped won and slid to fresh lows at 60.95. The buy signal is lowered again to 63.10.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength for the first time in months didn’t prevent sliding at the open from 2.61 to back under the prior highs that Wednesday’s close had broken. Which the EIA reaction extended down to Tuesday’s lows at 2.56 before recovering to attack 2.61.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday continued extending higher, probing the 1.1280 “higher prior low” to test the Falling Wedge’s downtrending resistance at 1.1300 up to 1.1310. Backing-and-filling would be normal in the process of forming a more durable bottom. The FOMC reaction started the process, collapsing back down to the Wedge’s 1.1240 lower-end.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down Wednesday between Monday’s close and Tuesday’s gap up remained within Tuesday’s range throughout Wednesday. Spiking up after the close in reaction to the FOMC policy statement attacked the week’s highs up to 1289.00. Reaction to the Fed Chair’s Q&A collapsed back down to and through session lows to test 1280.00.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday gapped back down to and through Tuesday’s 14.83 low, extending to fresh lows at 14.70, before the FOMC policy statement reaction bounced back up to 13.82. That was still under the morning’s lows and Tuesday’s low. Reaction to Powell’s Q&A fell back to 14.70.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
“Higher prior lows” at 147-22 and the 147-24 gap fill that were tested Friday were retested at Wednesday’s open and probed up to 148-11 ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. Holding up through the Policy Statement was retraced during the Q&A, allowing the sell signal to be raised to 147-04.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s reaction down from its open’s premature test of the 64.35 buy signal was extended down Wednesday to 62.75, allowing the buy signal to be lowered to 63.75,which was attacked into Wednesday’s close.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-lower overnight ranging was recovered in time to gap up Wednesday to and then through Friday and Tuesday’s 2.60-2.61 highs, extending a couple of cents higher to greet Thursday’s EIA from a position of strength.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Calculable resistance and the previous downtrending support (now resistance) of the massive Falling Wedge coincided at 1.1235. Both were probed Tuesday morning, as 1.1280 “higher prior lows” were attacked up to 1.1275. Closing above 1.1235 would create a position of strength to enable backing-and-filling to help form a bottom, so long as the lows are not retested.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight strength continued the pattern — or, lack thereof — for stringing together two consecutive similar sessions that would signal trending. Gapping up was retraced immediately to fill the gap back down to Monday’s close, which held as price fluctuated sideways in positive territory. A second consecutive higher close is still needed to signal Monday’s break did not gain traction.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite bouncing overnight from Monday’s drop, Tuesday’s choppy open dipped to 14.85. And despite the dip, positive territory was recovered up to 15.00. All of which helps to suggest Monday’s drop won’t extend, but a higher close is still needed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing under 147-04 and testing 146-30 Monday extended down only to 146-24 before bouncing up to 147-18. Wednesday’s FOMC isn’t being greeted from a position of strength or weakness.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already testing the 64.35 buy signal before Tuesday’s open was suspicious, and its resistance did launch a reaction down that filled the gap back to Monday’s close down to 63.30. The buy signal is free to trigger cleanly, but post-close API and Wednesday morning’s EIA are not being greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s intraday recovery firmed a little further overnight to pierce Friday’s 2.60 high by a penny, but Tuesday’s open slid to test 2.57. No buy signal is being confirmed, but the restrained optimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Lackluster Sunday night and Monday morning eventually firmed to probe above Friday’s highs to attack 1.1235, which must be recovered before confirming the decline’s momentum has lapsed and the trend may be reversing up.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Blipping-up from Monday’s gap down didn’t prevent resuming Sunday night’s slide from Friday’s 1288.50 close. Monday morning’s test and retest of 1280.00 held above the 1277.50 buy signal that had triggered last week, but rallying into Tuesday’s close is the minimum bullish requirement.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
[Rolling coverage forward from to Jul which trades at a 7-cent premium to May]… Overnight weakness attacking the 14.95 buy signal (basis Jul, 14.88 basis May) collapsed through the open to attack 14.90. While the gap now outstanding from Friday’s 15.09 close doesn’t require being filled, it is still a near-term attraction so long as any lower low intraday Tuesday is recovered to close positive.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the bounce Friday to test “higher prior lows” and to fill an outstanding gap allowed raising the sell signal to 147-04 with a close under 146-30 being a confirmation. Both were tested Monday, and extending any lower would signal the 145-24 target remains in-play.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s 62.28 low was attacked to within 20 cents Sunday night but not so much Monday morning. No second consecutive lower close avoids confirming the trend has reversed down, and keeps alive the likelihood for fresh highs targeting 67.00 which would be triggered back above 64.35.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s 2.61 close had triggered the 2.54 buy signal, which was attacked as support Monday down to 2.55. Almost all of which was recovered throughout the afternoon. A second consecutive higher close would have confirmed the recovery already underway, but closing above 2.61 Tuesday would be almost as reliably bullish.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s knee-jerk reaction to GDP blipped-down to a fresh low attacking 1.1155 before snapping back up to Thursday’s 1.1200 high, and then higher. The bounce still has room up to 1.1235 before signaling a recovery underway. No unfinished business remains outstanding below.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Blipping-down to 1276.00 in reaction to Friday’s GDP snapped back up through Thursday’s 1285.00 high to attack 1291.00, the highest level in 2 weeks and essentially confirming that a bottom is forming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
14.88 held as support through Friday’s GDP reaction that snapped back up to attack the highest levels in 2 weeks above 15.00. As with Friday, any early strength coming out of the weekend would be credible for extending intraday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only touching the 146-30 sell signal during Friday’s GDP reaction was deep enough to snap back up to fresh recovery highs, testing “higher prior lows and filling a 2-week old gap at 147-22. The gap-fill held, and back under 147-06 would now suffice to signal one more low underway targeting 145-24.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s late break under the 65.55 pullback limit proved prescient as Friday gapped down to the 64.35 sell signal and extended to attack 62.25 before noon. A second consecutive lower close Monday would confirm, but the reversal is premature, so recovering 64.10 prior highs is likelier.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward from May which trades at a 4-cent premium to May]… Thursday’s recovery to the 2.54 buy signal extended higher immediately to 2.60, now requiring a second consecutive higher close Monday to confirm a bottom has formed.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having confirmed Tuesday’s breakout, at least an eventual third lower close is now required before any recovery can be credible for extending. Already probing fresh lows before Thursday’s open, its gap down only recovered to fill the gap back up to Wednesday’s close, already fulfilling the objective. But the trend remains down so long as 1.1235 holds bounces.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Thursday to attack 1285.00 was retraced almost entirely back down to the 1278.50 buy signal that was still being tested at Wednesday’s close. Closing above Thursday’s high Friday would seal a bottom.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday back under the 14.88 buy signal was recovered to attack 15.00 but settled back at 14.88. A second consecutive higher close would have been bullish, but would still be credible Friday.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s probe above 147-04 didn’t extend higher before dipping back down to attack the 146-30 sell signal. Which didn’t trigger. But any lower low would still be credible for extending down into the weekend.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Testing the 65.55 pullback limit overnight had bounced to attack 66.30. But it was all retraced to end back down at the pullback limit, with a confirmed breakout still requiring at least an eventual higher close — but no assurance of avoiding a deeper pullback first.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to from May to Jun TOMORROW]… Wednesday’s pattern avoided greeting Thursday’s EIA from a position of weakness. And its reaction was up, testing the 2.50 buy signal by 2 cents. The signal held, but a second consecutive higher close on Friday would signal a recovery underway.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending to fresh lows Wednesday has done more than break under downtrending support that I’ve outlined in the daily videos. Wednesday’s fresh low close has confirmed Tuesday’s breakout from the multi-session range that was formed by the two prior days. At least an eventual third lower close is required before a recovery can be credible.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s rally probed the 1277.50 buy signal well into last week’s narrow range. A second consecutive higher close Thursday would confirm, and also likely recover last week’s range to seal a bottom.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying out of Wednesday’s open probed the 14.88 buy signal, stopping pessimistically short of filling the gap back up to Monday’s 14.98 close. A second consecutive higher close on Thursday would confirm.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday to 147-00 extended to 147-13, needing to close back under 146-30 to resume the decline still targeting 145-24. Closing above 147-04 would suggest a bigger detour first, probably to 148-00.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s dip only attacked the 65.50 pullback limit, which would likely hold a test since Monday’s confirmed breakout still requires at least an eventual third higher close — and probably a test of the 67.15 upper-end of the room for noise.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s fresh low fulfilled the requirement for it, which was triggered by having entered the weekend at a new trend extreme. Gapping up slightly Wednesday was retraced to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Once again, Thursday’s EIA avoids being greeted from a position of weakness, but still not from a position of strength.