Retesting Sunday night’s 2883.50 low had become the next lower attraction, its objective being 2881.00-2882.00. which was pierced just after noon, and launched a noon hour bounce.

The bounce recovered up to 2895.25, twice including an interim 5-point dip. Then the noon hour’s exit resumed the same trajectory as its entry.

The 2880.00 bias-down signal was tested in time to invoke the grace period. When it triggered at 1:30, the 2873.50 bias-down target was being met to within 3 ticks. It has been probed down to 2871.00, with potential to 2870.50.

The path down to 2846.00-2851.00 remains intact. But the bias-down target has been met early in its window. Being down so much intraday with at least 1-minute RSI diverging positively at the low, be aware of the potential for a steep reversal up — probably only a temporary correction if it even develops.

The open’s blip-down to 2894.00 had reacted up sharply to test 2911.00. Forming a Rising Wedge from there greeted the bias environment at 2917.50. The window began lapsing at its 2924.50 high. Flat-to-lower ranging since then has held 2915.00 as support.

The market is still deep into negative territory from Friday’s close. It’s still at or above Thursday afternoon’s 2920.00 high. Its recovery would suggest that strong-handed buyers are targeting a retest of last week’s highs.

So, wasn’t 2920.00 recovered through a relevant timing window? This morning’s bias environment did start and finish lapsing above 2920.00 between 11:30-noon. But an interim dip down to 2917.50 still overlapped 2920.00, so its recovery is not complete.

Exiting this afternoon’s bias environment above 2920.00 or closing above it would still be credible. Until then, the recovery attempt is vulnerable to being reversed.

Resistance at 2936.00 was probed momentarily during the first hour, above 2938.00. But it took a return to the opening range’s 2931.50 low for another probe above 2936.00 to extend. That attacked 2943.00, and its reaction tested 2938.00 as support.

But the bias environment’s exit recovered 2940.00, and the noon hour extended to fresh highs. Now this afternoon’s 2944.50 bias-up signal has triggered, targeting 2951.75. Already a fresh high is touching 2948.25.

Interim resistance in the 2950.00 area could challenge the path to 2951.75, or else it had better support a reaction down from 2951.75. If the afternoon continues drifting higher as Friday afternoons often do, the next higher objective is 2956.00. Meanwhile, a reaction down has room to 2941.75 before even beginning to suggest momentum is reversing down.

This morning’s 2929.75 bias-up signal was recovered through 10:15 to trigger bias-up. It had not extended higher before dipping to 2928.00 at 10:30. The bars surrounding 10:30 were overlapping 2929.75, so we at least left the door open to resuming the rally. But its 2931.50 signal was only touched and not triggered.

A reversal’s 2928.25 signal did trigger, and it was very productive. Apparently reacting to word spreading that io another break in China trade talks, sharply lower lows at 2901.00 was tested while the bias environment lapsed.

Even if the morning’s bias-up were not invalidated at 10:30, it was invalidated by exiting the bias environment under its 2918.50 and 2911.25 bias-down parameters. So, its 2936.50 bias-up target is not “unfinished business.”

Meanwhile, rallying through the noon hour has now triggered bias-up again, back above 2912.00. The 2919.50 bias-up target is in-play. Already 2918.25 has been touched. Which is no assurance of extending any higher, and might instead risk having expressed too much optimism ahead of tomorrow morning’s Employment Situation report.

The only “unfinished business” above is Tuesday night’s “new Globex trend extreme” high, which is the least attractive hierarchically. Not recovering 2930.00-2934.00, and preferably 2935.00-2936.00, could be very vulnerable to a negative reaction.

The post-open dip to 2947.00 was recovered before noon back up to the morning’s 2955.75 bias-up target. Its reaction trended down to fresh lows through the noon hour and tested this afternoon’s 2944.50 bias-down target by 1 point. Its reaction bounced up to test this afternoon’s 2950.50 bias-down signal by 3 ticks, which held its test.

This is a bias-down environment, and its bias-down target was already met. Its retest is in-play, but won’t become “unfinished business” if left outstanding.

Retesting the bias-down target is less likely with the FOMC events just minutes away and beginning during the bias environment. Greeting FOMC from beyond either end of the 2946.25-2949.50 range would be likely to react in that direction. In between is an unknown “no man’s land”.

Volatility tends to be excessive during FOMC policy statements and Fed Chair Q&As. Be sure to consider that greater degree of unpredictability in position-sizing and execution decisions.

Sloshing around through the open bled into the bias environment, triggering bias-down and repeatedly attacking its 2935.00 bias-down target. The target expanded to 2933.00-2934.00, with plenty of time for its test to be recovered before marginalizing buyers for the day. In fact, its test plunged to 2926.00, and still recovered in time to avoid marginalizing buyers.

Meanwhile, simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs left outstanding at the 2926.00 low require an eventual retest. That didn’t prevent extending the bounce to fresh post-open highs testing the pre-open 2945.50 high. Which is “no-bias trending,” since the 2941.50 bias-up signal held its test through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. So, 2941.50 is likely to be retraced at or through the bias environment exit.

The balance of the session is vulnerable not so much to trending as it is to gravitating toward one end of the range or the other. Exiting the bias environment back within the 2935.00-2940.00 post-open range — especially under it — would likely extend down to the 2926.00 low. Leaving its attraction outstanding as “unfinished business” would make a retest of yesterday’s highs. likelier to reverse down.

Although triggered late, this morning’s bias-up signal was confirmed when the market printed a fresh high above its pre-10:15 high. Its 2950.50 bias-up target wasn’t met before this morning’s bias environment lapsed, so it became “unfinished business.” Attacking it to within 3 ticks during the noon hour neutralized it. It is no longer unfinished business.

Never mind that, this afternoon’s 2946.75 bias-up signal just triggered. Its 2954.25 bias-up target is in-play. A fresh high above 2950.00 would help to confirm.

Meanwhile, back under the bias-up signal through 1:30 could invalidate the bias-up and leave no unfinished business above. Probing lower any later would otherwise likely be only temporary, unless also rejecting the 2936.50 bias-down signal.

Especially on Fridays, a failed early trending attempt tends to marginalize its sponsorship. Sellers attacked the overnight range’s lower-end down to 2919.25 while testing the 2919.50 bias-down target as RSIs diverged positively. That alone would undermine sellers, but the 2924.50 bias-down signal also failed to trigger.

So, sellers are marginalized. The bias environment recovered up to 2934.75.

The noon hour was flat-to-lower, dipping 5 points. And now this afternoon has triggered no-bias. The next hour may range sideways, or flat-to-higher. There’s room up to the 2838.25 bias-up signal without requiring retracement back down.

Resuming the rally when the bias environment is lapsing would be entirely credible for extending higher into the weekend. It wouldn’t be required, drifting lower can’t be ruled out, but ranging sideways into the weekend is only slightly likelier.

This morning’s break from the overnight sideways range made up for lost time. Sliding from its 2929.00 open extended through its bias-down signal to test its bias-down target down to 2919.25. All during the first 15 minutes.

Reacting up touched the morning’s 2927.75 bias-down signal as resistance, and then plunged again. Bias-down renewed, and the 2914.25 renewed bias-down target was touched at the low. All during the first hour.

Rallying almost straight up to noon touched 2935.00. That’s where the pre-open slide had originated, having held the last overnight bounce. And so far, 2935.00 has held this morning’s bounce, too.

Now this afternoon’s no-bias environment is holding the bounce. Extending higher anyway could have extended to test its 2938.25 bias-up signal without requiring any retracement. And now that the bias environment is lapsing, its resistance is diminished.

Nothing requires extending higher today, or at all, but not yet reversing down under 2930.00 is likely to extend higher today — if not also tomorrow morning.

This morning’s 2932.25 bias-down signal was tested down to 2931.00 and held, putting into play an offsetting test of the 2942.00 bias-up signal. But the recovery from 2931.00 peaked at  2939.50, so 2942.00 became “unfinished business.”

Add that to yesterday afternoon’s 2942.75 bias-up target that was left outstanding.

Now this afternoon’s 2930.25 bias-down signal has also held its test down to 2928.50. This puts into play an offsetting test of its 2942.75 bias-up signal. Currently, 2934.00 is being attacked.

Resuming yesterday morning’s surge has been delayed by yesterday afternoon’s ranging that persisted overnight. Backing-and-filling now is a little bit of overkill. It can still be productive, if resolved up today. But not yet recovering this afternoon would suggest a deeper pullback to find buyers.