Opening above 2920.00 would have been optimal to absorbing the overnight selling. Alternatively, further backing-and-filling down to 2910.00-2911.00 could have exited the bias environment above 2920.00 to trap extra shorts.

Exiting the open any lower would suggest that yesterday’s recovery must be retraced, regardless of the retracement’s purpose.

So, a last-minute pre-open low at 2902.50 that popped-up through the open could have formed a low, but 2910.00-2911.00 wasn’t probed for long enough to break its resistance. Lower and lower lows have made a retest of Sunday night’s 2883.50 low down to 2882.00 likely.

Exiting the bias environment and entering the noon hour under 2882.00 would suggest a deeper drop underway, next targeting 2846.00-2851.00. Otherwise, recovering 2901.00 would be a first step to absorbing this round of selling pressure, albeit still requiring the confirmation of recovering 2910.00-2911.00, too.

The post-open surge pierced Sunday night’s 2917.75 opening print by 6 ticks, then reacted down to 2913.75. A sell signal is sitting one tick lower. Back above 2920.00 would resume the rally, next targeting 2927.50.

Significant overnight resistance had formed at 2904.00. The open blipped-down to touch 2894.00. Breaking under it through the open would have been problematic to a recovery. Its reaction up quickly triggered the 2903.25 buy signal, extending since then up to 2919.25.

A correction has room down to 2907.00 before suggesting something deeper underway. Something deeper would suggest that buyers weren’t strong-handed, and fresh session lows could be tested or broken.

Otherwise, no correction is needed before resuming the rally. But resuming the rally without a correction must still exceed 2927.50 through a relevant timing window to confirm that strong-handed sponsorship has absorbed the drop.

The relentless overnight rally had come within 1 tick of the 2929.25 bias-up target before Payrolls was announced. Its knee-jerk reaction from 2931.00 down to 2923.00 was quickly recovered back up to 2931.00.

The relentless rally resumed, greeting the open at 2934.00. Which the first hour has overlapped repeatedly. Four of the first hour’s 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped it, suggesting a Dry Cleaners morning — difficult, perhaps better off running errands.

Maintaining positive territory throughout the first hour does suggest that buyers are strong-handed. It doesn’t prevent dipping into negative territory, but it does suggest a dip would be temporary to find more sponsorship for the rally. Alternatively, rallying out of the bias window would suggest that sponsorship has arrived already.

A second test of its 2931.50 lower-end has now pierced its upper-end to 2939.50. Resistance at 2940.00 may challenge the rally initially, but sellers aren’t any likelier to retake control.

The relentless overnight rally from 2915.50 had gotten to 2932.50. Its reaction down extended to 2921.00 before the open, and another 2 points lower post-open. It took several minutes, but a wide 5-point opening range resolved up.

And up. Overnight highs were just pierced by 1 ticks. The 2929.75 bias-up signal has triggered. And the 2936.50 bias-up target is in-play.

Stair-stepping higher out of the open’s range is a difficult pattern to reverse. At least, not before some sort of topping were to develop. Simply breaking lower would otherwise be likely to recover.

Meanwhile, recovering back up into 2930.00-2934.00 isn’t “half the battle” to recover, it is a separate battle. Exiting the bias environment above 2935.00-2936.00 would help to resume the post-open recovery into something more substantial.

Yesterday’s last-minute surge through 2947.00 into the post-close fresh high had extended to new highs at 2961.25 before midnight. The trend since then has been down. Down into Europe’s opens, down into the open and then down through the first half-hour to touch 2947.00.

Still, the 2950.50 bias-up signal was recovered in time to trigger cleanly. Its subsequent test as support did NOT hold at 10:30, invalidating the bias-up. The 2955.75 bias-up target is NOT in-play, although the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” might also be an attraction.

The invalidation isn’t surprising since upside objectives are fighting the headwinds of this afternoon’s impending FOMC events. Triggering bias-up first, and THEN being invalidated does reflect excessive optimism. Regardless, back above 2953.25 would be helpful to the upside. Otherwise, a deeper pullback to 2945.00 is likely.

Gradually working higher from the 2935.75 overnight low had recovered to test yesterday’s 2944.50 cash session close by 1 point. But another news item triggered a spike down to 2939.00, greeting the open fluctuating around the 2941.50 bias-down signal.

The open spiked down immediately to 2936.00. A 4-point range has eked lower to touch the 2935.00 bias-down target. Bounces have tested buy signals, but always too early to be credible — either during a sizeable bounce limit test, or by the first reaction up from the previous trend’s extreme.

Back above 2939.00 would now be credible for recovering the 2941.50 open, if not also probing yesterday’s 2944.50 cash session close and higher. But back under 2936.00 would target a test of 2934.00 and lower. And by potentially exiting the bias environment under the open’s lows, an intraday recovery would become very unlikely.

The 2939.00 earlier Globex low had been threatened overnight by 5 ticks. But the 2942.00 open wasn’t threatening it, at all. Breaking under 2939.00 through the open was necessary for the Globex-flip setup.

If the setup wasn’t even threatened at the open, then it couldn’t be rejected. Its consequence couldn’t be as bullish as it would have been bearish. So, Globex-flip is irrelevant this morning.

That doesn’t prevent rallying anyway. So long as sellers weren’t retaking control, there was an attraction to higher highs. They didn’t require a retest, but that didn’t prevent rallying anyway, either.

The open surged to fresh highs attacking 2948.00. Reacting down to 2941.00 didn’t prevent triggering late bias-up above 2944.50. Now 2948.00 is being attacked again, as the 2950.50 bias-up target is in-play.

The overnight sideways range did break, in reaction to an econ report (GDP) at the end of the pre-open 60-90 minute window. GDP rarely influences price action, let alone triggering a 7-point surge to 2932.00.

None of which changes the setup of a sideways overnight range’s 60-90 minute breakout being likely to retrace. Which dropping through the open did, back to its 2926.50 upper-end and through it to touch the 2920.50 bias-down target.

A bounce tested the 2924.50 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period, which was recovered in time to trigger late no-bias. Offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is in-play, 2934.00 and 2940.75. Being a late no-bias, neither objective would become “unfinished business” if left outstanding.

Meanwhile, this being a Friday, a failed trending attempt tends to marginalize its sponsorship. And Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. The bounce has tested and retested 2929.75, and holding 2925.25 as support would suggest sellers’ influence is done, and the session is vulnerable to trending up.

Overnight action had been contained within yesterday’s last-half hour range, and that didn’t change until the open. Literally, the open. The most recent bounce up to 2935.00 had been retraced to test yesterday’s 2928.50-2929.50 lows at the open, on the way down to 2919.25. Its reaction touched the 2927.75 bias-down signal as resistance.

And the bias-down signal’s resistance resisted. Pretty well. So well, that another fresh low has touched the 2914.25 renewed bias-down target.

At least 1-minute RSI diverged positively at the low, while 3-minute RSI made at least a higher low. So far, the bounce is testing the 2923.00, and back above 2924.50 would help to confirm that backing-and-filling has found its strong-handed sponsorship.

Regardless of a bottom, already recovering some relevant resistance coming out of the bias environment would be bullish. And because the opportunity is being pursued so aggressively, not actually entering the noon hour in recovery mode would be that much more bearish.

The lower-end of yesterday afternoon’s range was tested overnight down to 2932.00. And retested. The lower-end held, and its retest launched a bounce attacking the range’s 2939.75 upper-end. The upper-end held.

Dipping through the open extended to retest the lower-end of yesterday afternoon’s range down to 2931.00. The test held. Not only the test of overnight lows, but of this morning’s 2933.25 bias-down signal.

This is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2942.00 bias-up signal is in-play.

Already 2939.00 is being pierced. Actually fulfilling the 2942.00 bias-up signal’s test would also come within 3 ticks of yesterday’s “unfinished business” at 2942.75, which would neutralize its attraction. This wouldn’t necessarily end the rally, but new objectives would need to be established.