DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping down Sunday night in reaction to China trade talks news presented the same opportunity as it always has for any other shallower, intraday reaction, regardless of direction. Fading the headline reaction has been a reliable trade, which overnight traders already began exploiting from the 2883.50 Globex low. That was 63 points under Friday’s close, which recovered to 2904.00-2905.00 ahead of Monday’s open. The open’s blip-down to 2894.00 reacted up immediately and through the morning to probe Thursday afternoon’s 2920.00 by nearly 5 points. A 10-point correction through the noon hour reacted back up to attack session highs. But the no-bias environment required waiting to resume the rally, which it did with a vengeance surging to 2938.00. The last half-hour attacked 2930.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Another China trade talks headline preceded the Globex open hard, triggering a spike down to 2910.00. Ranging sideways was resisted by 2920.00, until another headline triggered a 15-point spike up to 2930.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. Trending down gradually retraced it all to consolidate just under 2920.00, and now another spike down is testing 2913.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing yesterday above Thursday’s 2920.00 afternoon high suggested buyers have regained traction to potentially retest last week’s highs. Exiting today’s open back under 2920.00 would invalidate that traction, at least requiring buyers to form new traction to avoid reversing down. Temporary backing-and-filling would be optimal holding post-open tests of 2920.00 as support. Probes down to 2910.00-2911.00 could still recover. But any lower through a relevant timing window could put yesterday’s pre-open lows into play.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2918.00 would likely also exceed the 2921.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would likely at least trigger the 2927.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2930.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted optimistically, but not so optimistically as to be bearish from a contrarian perspective. In fact, the 10-point rally from 2918.00 to 2928.00 greeted Friday’s open at 2934.00. Then it extended to 2949.00 into the afternoon bias environment. But no traction was gained and the balance of the session ranged sideways as the cash session closed at 2946.00. The afternoon’s bias-up had just triggered and its 2951.75 target was left outstanding. Also left outstanding was an intraday retest of Wednesday’s 2961.75 overnight high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Reports of difficulties in China trade talks were confirmed Sunday when Trump tweeted that tariffs will rise on Friday. Globex gapped down 28 points to Thursday’s 2918.00 close and collapsed another 24 points from there to 2893.50. A bounce resolved down to 2883.50, and a more gradual reaction up to 2903.50 has defined a trading range that persisted through Europe’s opens.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Any downside with a greater purpose than simply backing-and-filling would require gapping down sharply — at the very least, under Friday’s 2931.50 post-open lows. That doesn’t seem to be a problem based on current indications. Of course, opening too much deeper without gaining traction along the way can inhibit sponsorship, let alone reinforcements. The overnight collapse’s catalyst isn’t organic. Rather, it is in reaction to China trade talks developments. Fading reactions to those headlines has been highly reliable. Exiting the open back above 2920.00 would start to signal that sellers weren’t gaining traction. Recovering 2931.50 would still be necessary for putting into play a retest of last week’s highs. Otherwise, breaking under 2886.00-2892.00 through a relevant timing window would next target 2846.00-2851.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Price is too far removed from this morning’s bias parameters to escape renewing the bias-down signal.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s late collapse to and through its 2919.50 target was corrected overnight to its 2930.00-2934.00 objective at 2932.25. Dipping back down to 2919.50 into the open reacted back up to test the pre-open high. Triggering bias-up cleanly at 10:15 was invalidated at 10:30 as the balance of the morning bias environment collapsed down to 2901.00. Bouncing back to 2919.50 into the afternoon bias environment ranged narrowly sideways through the close, but for a momentary dip to 2910.00. .

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy sideways ranging around 2919.50 broke higher to 2926.00. But only momentarily before settling back to 2922.00. Europe’s opens triggered another break higher to 2928.50 whose reaction is now trying to hold 2926.00 as support.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The overnight rally’s slope isn’t so steep as to labeled excessive optimism. But it is optimism anyway, and its sponsorship hasn’t gained any traction for the effort — yesterday morning’s 2932.75 prior high is still resistance. Having tested and retested 2930.00-2934.00, another retest would likely break higher. But 2936.00 and preferably 2940.00 must be recovered through a relevant timing window to confirm momentum is reversing up. Next higher objectives would be 2950.00 (+/-), 2956.00, and a retest of the 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” probably up to 2969.00. Otherwise, not much support exists below in case of a negative reaction to the Employment Situation report. Perhaps some at 2892.00-2894.00, although it was already tested overnight there weeks ago. Any lower would target 2846.00-2851.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Excessive optimism preceded Wednesday’s open, from surging at Tuesday’s close on AAPL’s earnings to producing a “new Globex trend extreme” overnight. The 2961.25 overnight high qualifies as a “New Globex trend extreme” requiring eventual intraday retest. None of which prevented the 2954.25 open from cycling down to 2943.50 at the noon hour’s low, with an interim bounce up to 2956.00. Even that had stopped optimistically short of fulfilling Tuesday’s unfinished business below at 2941.50. The FOMC policy statement reaction bounced back up to 2956.00, but no higher. The Fed Chair Q&A reaction was quite different, reacting down to 2939.00 through the bias environment exit. Consolidating there broke lower again through the last half-hour, collapsing to 2924.50 at the cash session close and 2921.00 before settlement.

Overnight action’s new info…
Just closing under 2935.00 or 2930.00 would have been a compelling hold-short, likely to gap down to 2919.00. So much of that potential had been borrowed already before the close to make it no longer compelling, creating potential for a bounce. Post-close action did probe 2919.00 down to the 2915.50 Globex action. Trending up relentlessly since then touched 2932.25. A blip-down to 2925.00 just snapped back up to 2929.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering 2930.00-2934.00 is big, but not quite a rejection of the overnight break. Big, because the probe under Tuesday’s 2926.00 low could be isolated away from intraday action, for which there was otherwise no bullish reason to probe. That’s not enough to reject the break, but it helps position the open to extend the overnight recovery up to 2949.75-2950.50. And revisiting the 2950.00 area should include a retest of 2956.00, whose resistance is probably no longer influential enough to prevent retesting Tuesday night’s 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme.” Otherwise, containing the 2930.00-2934.00 bounce and resuming the decline would next target 2910.00-2911.00, a very difficult level to recover from.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2931.50 would be likely to trigger the 2929.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2927.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The recovery from an overnight dip was already retracing into Tuesday’s 2941.50 open. The retracement extended to test overnight lows down to 2935.00, collapsing from there to 2926.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs helped to launch a reaction that entered the noon hour back above the earlier 2935.00 low. Still firming into the afternoon bias environment didn’t firm enough in time to trigger the 2941.50 bias-up signal. That didn’t prevent no-bias trending from probing above it anyway, or from hovering at the afternoon’s 2947.00 bias-up target. Anxiousness ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings probably paralyzed price action there. A blip-up at the close touched 2950.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Surging to 2956.50 in reaction to AAPL’s earnings reaction (AMD did well, too) neutralized Monday afternoon’s unfinished business at 2954.25. Consolidating into early Globex was recovered to extend the rally to 2961.25 before midnight. Complexity of the upleg qualifies its high as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, often the same day. Price action since then drifted lower several points, eventually steepening to test this morning’s 2955.75 bias-up target by 3 ticks, and the upper-end of yesterday’s post-close surge.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
All price action above Friday’s 2951.50 high has developed after yesterday’s close. It’s impressive enough that the next session’s 2926.00 low was recovered intraday at least to within proximity of the high. But already trending above it and by so much suggests pessimism is in hiding, but that a few pessimists have been found and shot. This can prove bearish from a contrarian perspective, although not too pleasant for pessimists in the interim, in more ways than one. But it is exclusively an overnight rally, essentially, which can become an intraday decline if the open doesn’t quickly attract intraday reinforcements. That’s without even considering the weighty afternoon events, or any negative pre-open earnings surprises. Trending beyond an established range is already difficult ahead of an afternoon’s FOMC events, or difficult to maintain. Extending last night’s rally this morning anyway would next target 2969.00, and be difficult to defend. Backing-and-filling ahead of the report could become a much deeper reversal if the 2950.50 bias-up signal doesn’t trigger.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2957.25 would be likely to exceed the 2955.75 bias-up signal at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2953.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2950.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2947.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Two probes of fresh highs Sunday night attacking 2947.00 lacked the complexity to label them “new Globex trend extremes,” so they didn’t require intraday retest. That didn’t prevent fresh post-open highs, especially after an overnight dip to 2938.00 was recovered to avoid forming a bearish Globex-flip setup. Two bias-up signals triggered, but only the morning’s 2950.50 bias-up target was met. The afternoon’s 2954.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business,” attacked only to 2951.50. Perhaps it was anxiousness ahead of GOOGL’s post-close earnings that inhibited rallying higher, instead retracing to 2942.00 through the close.

Overnight action’s new info…
The anxiousness was well-founded as GOOGL’s miss plunged 100 points. That didn’t exactly inspire the market, which extended down to 2940.00 through early Globex. Poor economic news from China triggered a spike down to test 2936.00, which was mostly recovered through midnight. That has gradually recovered to attack 2944.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Tuesday’s econ calendar is very heavy with plenty of reports, and Wednesday’s calendar is very weighty with FOMC events. The quarterly earnings onslaught continues, and this stage continues shaping a different profile than the first round of reports. GE just surprised to the upside, but not enough by itself to recover yesterday’s unfinished business another 11 points higher. Several econ reports are staggered through the open that could either help or hinder a recovery. Maintaining an open in positive territory would be a good first step. Otherwise, the unfinished business above need not prevent a sizeable interim pullback — and last night’s probe under both Sunday night and Monday’s lows suggests some sort of pullback is nearing. Regardless, intraday trending will likely become inhibited again this afternoon ahead of post-close earnings due from AAPL.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2945.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2941.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2940.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday night’s narrow sideways range had broken through its 2926.50 upper-end to 2932.00 in reaction to GDP. Having originated 60-90 minutes pre-open, the breakout was reversed back down through the open to the overnight range’s lower-end at the 2919.50 bias-down targte. The reversal attempt failed, likely marginalizing sellers for the day. Separately, holding tests of both bias-down parameters put into play offsetting tests of the 2934.00 and 2940.75 bias-up parameters. They weren’t required to be met because the rejection was late, but their tests were fulfilled anyway. Also met was “unfinished business” from prior sessions at 2942.00 and 2942.75 by Friday’s last-minute surge to 2942.75. The surge came too late for its new high close to create new unfinished business.

Overnight action’s new info…
A painstakingly narrow 2940.50-2943.00 range developed well through midnight before showing any signs of life. It was a brief surge to 2944.75, and then a reaction down to 2941.25. Another surge to higher highs attacked 2947.00, but no less brief, as its reaction down fell to lower lows at 2940.00. And now a consolidation there is probing lower. Now the 2939.35 earlier Globex low is being probed as support. Each of the overnight probes to higher highs was a singular surge, and each reacted back down under Friday’s high. So, neither qualifies as a “new Globex trend extreme” that would otherwise require intraday retest.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
New trend highs overnight that don’t qualify as a “new Globex trend extreme” does not prevent their intraday retest, but it’s not required. No other “unfinished business” above is outstanding, but that doesn’t prevent extending higher anyway. Borrowing (and slightly twisting) Newton’s first law, the uptrend remains intact until a reversal setup appears. And then that setup must make impact. A bearish Globex-flip setup is trying to form, as an overnight probe above the prior 2942.75 intraday high has been reversed to probe under the 2939.35 earlier Globex low. Meanwhile, be aware that Friday-Monday setups are less reliable, and also breaking under the 2935.75 last relative low would be helpful confirmation. If fully formed but not triggered, the setup’s consequence should be as bullish as it could have been bearish, which means influencing the morning’s trend.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2946.50 would be likely to trigger the 2944.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2940.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2940.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2936.50 bias-down signal.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Thursday’s 2928.00 open was on the trajectory of a collapse from 2935.00, coming out of an otherwise sideways overnight range. The first hour fell enough both to renew its bias-down signal, and to fulfill its 2914.25 renewed bias-down target. That was two hours following the last pre-open bounce up to 2935.00, which took 90 minutes to retrace by noon. The balance of the session ranged sideways again, supported by 2930.00, perhaps paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of AMZN and INTC post-close earnings. A last-minute break fell to 2926.00-2928.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
The last-minute break extended down to 2922.00 at the Globex open, and there began yet another narrow sideways range. A brief reaction up to 2926.50 quickly resolved down and extended to attack 2917.00. The extension was recovered by midnight, and soon 2926.50 was also attacked. Its reaction down through Europe’s opens has now recovered back up to 2926.50.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Yet another narrow sideways range, means another opportunity for the 60-90 minute Globex false breakout setup. Suddenly trending 60-90 minutes pre-open usually retraces back to the overnight range, and often back through it in the opposite direction. Even waiting until the open can reflect weak-handed sponsorship, regardless of its productivity, like yesterday morning’s 21-point collapse that was retraced entirely. Speaking of which, yesterday’s retracement never became a reversal back above the collapse’s 2935.00 origin, but the 2928.00 open was retraced by the bias environment’s exit. That’s another instance (to another degree) of strength that undermines sellers. Undermines sellers, but doesn’t prevent them from attempting to reverse the trend down, like yesterday morning. They’ll need to influence the open and the morning if they intend to influence the day. The alternative won’t necessarily rally, but would be vulnerable to a sudden rally attempt gaining traction — and Fridays are the most vulnerable to sudden trending attempts.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2927.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2924.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2920.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Tuesday morning’s rally to 2940.00 sapped even more energy from the rally than had been suggested by Tuesday afternoon’s narrow ranging down to 2934.00. The sideways ranging persisted overnight to greet Wednesday’s open. The range expanded slightly intraday — but not to fresh highs, only probing under Tuesday afternoon’s lows. Lower and lower lows that tested 2928.00 through the close, perhaps inhibited ahead of post-close earnings from FB, MSFT and TSLA. Both of Wednesday’s bias-down signals held their tests to avoid triggering, putting into play offsetting tests of their bias-up signals. The morning’s 2942.00 objective remains outstanding, although the afternoon’s 2937.50 bias-up signal was already neutralized to within 3 ticks by Wednesday’s late-afternoon high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Globex immediately popped-up to 2932.50 and continued firming to attack 2936.00. An abrupt reversal retraced it all into and out of Europe’s opens. A 90-minute consolidation supported by 2928.00 got the confidence for a bounce. That has proved to be premature, as a 2-hour consolidation resisted by 2933.00 just spiked down to 2927.00 on MMM miss and lower guidance. But the spike was quickly retraced 5 points to where it greeted the news.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
An entire session elapsed Wednesday without immediately retracing Tuesday morning’s rally, which helps to suggest the rally will resume. It’s another version of pessimism, ineffectual pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. A deeper retracement first remains possible, still searching for strong-handed buyers — and a deeper retracement first also remains likely, however brief, unless the open has already recovered back above yesterday afternoon’s 2937.00 high. Note that overnight action has essentially been contained within yesterday’s last half-hour range, so breaking either way within 60-90 minutes of the open will likely retrace. Unfinished business at 2942.00 and 2942.75 should help to limit selling pressure, and to attract price higher.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2930.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2927.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Breaking out from a sideways overnight range tends to be retraced, when the breakout occurs 60-90 minutes before the open. Monday night’s 2908.50-2914.00 range broke higher during that window, but it self-corrected pre-open. This allowed a post-open rally to extend. Which it did, fulfilling its 2926.50-2928.00 objective before the bias environment began lapsing. And then extending to attack 2940.00 into the noon hour. Despite triggering the afternoon’s bias-up, there was no momentum either way. The balance of the session ranged narrowly sideways between 2934.50-2938.00. The 2942.75 bias-up target becomes “unfinished business,” and the session qualifies as a breaking still needing a second consecutive higher close Wednesday to confirm.

Overnight action’s new info…
Two wrongs don’t make a right, and two ranges don’t make a single range, despite being contained within a prior range. Like yesterday afternoon’s narrow sideways range, which has contained last night’s price action. But last night’s price action can be segmented into at least two ranges. First, the ranging narrowed for a couple of hours, hovering in a 2-point range and still attacking 2940.00. Trending down into midnight then entered another narrow 2-point range testing 2932.00, but at the lower-end of Tuesday afternoon’s range. Its retest after Europe’s opens launched a recovery that is now attacking the range’s upper-end.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
S&Ps are now attacking prior highs. The underlying cash index came within 4-5 points of its ~2841 Sep 21 high. Futures then were trading at a 5-6 point premium, now equivalent to 2646.00-2647.00, and the current equivalent is 2844.00. While those are likely to influence price action if tested, there’s no reason for the market to have come this close to the highs without ultimately probing higher. But the path there is never assured, especially when ranging develops just short of resistance. Regardless, this is “ineffectual pessimism” that is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. We’ll apply setups derived from the opening print and bias parameters to help determine likely resolutions.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2929.00 would be likely to trigger this morning’s 2933.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2936.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2937.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2942.00 bias-up signal.