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Highlights: No econ reports or Fed speakers are yet scheduled for the new week. Tuesday’s calendar isn’t much busier or higher profile.

NO REPORTS SCHEDULED

Highlights: This week’s econ reports finally get interesting with Thursday’s busy calendar. It includes several high-profile and reliably influential reports, including the Fed Chair and other Fed speakers. Any noticeable price reaction to pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports.

International Trade
8:30 AM ET

Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET

*Jerome Powell Speaks
8:30 AM ET

Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

*Raphael Bostic Speaks
10:45 AM ET

*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET

*Charles Evans Speaks
1:15 PM ET

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging narrowly around 1.1235 resistance overnight dipping Tuesday. But having completed a pullback that held 1.1200, the pattern remains vulnerable to almost literally exploding higher.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap down came from a position of strength, since Monday’s post-open dip to 1278.00 had recovered into positive territory. Tuesday’s recovery probed above Monday’s highs, attacking Sunday night’s 1287.00 highs with no excuse not to trend higher.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down to 14.81 and its immediate reversal up stopped short of filling the gap back to Monday’s 14.94 close, which was similar to Monday’s gap down. Both sessions were also inside days, biased-upward, which tends to resolve bearishly if not rejected by gapping up sharply.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks once again triggered a flight-to-safety that gapped up to the recent intraday range’s upper-end at 148-06 and then extended to test the 148-24 recent overnight high as stocks fell further. Back under 147-24 and 147-14 would signal the trend reversing down, which should then develop aggressively.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s recovery reacted by trending down overnight to gap down Tuesday, and then dip deeper. Closing above 61.50 would suggest the dip had been absorbed, but under 60.50 would signal a new downleg underway. Wednesday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday and flat-to-higher ranging still stopped short of recovering the 2.56 buy signal, but at least creates potential to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.

Retesting Sunday night’s 2883.50 low had become the next lower attraction, its objective being 2881.00-2882.00. which was pierced just after noon, and launched a noon hour bounce.

The bounce recovered up to 2895.25, twice including an interim 5-point dip. Then the noon hour’s exit resumed the same trajectory as its entry.

The 2880.00 bias-down signal was tested in time to invoke the grace period. When it triggered at 1:30, the 2873.50 bias-down target was being met to within 3 ticks. It has been probed down to 2871.00, with potential to 2870.50.

The path down to 2846.00-2851.00 remains intact. But the bias-down target has been met early in its window. Being down so much intraday with at least 1-minute RSI diverging positively at the low, be aware of the potential for a steep reversal up — probably only a temporary correction if it even develops.

Highlights: The only econ report of any consequence to price action Wednesday is the EIA, which is influences price action indirectly through a Crude Oil reaction.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.

Opening above 2920.00 would have been optimal to absorbing the overnight selling. Alternatively, further backing-and-filling down to 2910.00-2911.00 could have exited the bias environment above 2920.00 to trap extra shorts.

Exiting the open any lower would suggest that yesterday’s recovery must be retraced, regardless of the retracement’s purpose.

So, a last-minute pre-open low at 2902.50 that popped-up through the open could have formed a low, but 2910.00-2911.00 wasn’t probed for long enough to break its resistance. Lower and lower lows have made a retest of Sunday night’s 2883.50 low down to 2882.00 likely.

Exiting the bias environment and entering the noon hour under 2882.00 would suggest a deeper drop underway, next targeting 2846.00-2851.00. Otherwise, recovering 2901.00 would be a first step to absorbing this round of selling pressure, albeit still requiring the confirmation of recovering 2910.00-2911.00, too.