A bias-down, a sell signal, but first a bounce.

[pay]The 1301’75 bias-up signal’s break extended down 12 points, which is 15 points under the bias-up target. Just triggering No-bias was a sell signal. But the 10:15 window was exited under 1294’25 to signal no bias-down signal, as well.

The failed early rally isn’t surprising, since the outstanding gap offered resistance when it was filled, and the expiration-day made trending unlikely. This much was already covered in today’s Trading Plan.

So, what to make of this attempt to trend down? The 3-minute RSI no longer requires lower lows, and the 1-minute RSI positive divergence makes the slide vulnerable to a bounce. At 10:30, the first half-hour’s 1292’00 is serving again as support. Trending wasn’t likely to succeed this morning, and S&Ps  have gone from one of the range to the other. It does look like sellers have lost their traction, or the pattern has lost its near-term predictability.

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