Post-open Review

Early buyers miss bite after bite.

Opening above 2920.00 would have been optimal to absorbing the overnight selling. Alternatively, further backing-and-filling down to 2910.00-2911.00 could have exited the bias environment above 2920.00 to trap extra shorts.

Exiting the open any lower would suggest that yesterday’s recovery must be retraced, regardless of the retracement’s purpose.

So, a last-minute pre-open low at 2902.50 that popped-up through the open could have formed a low, but 2910.00-2911.00 wasn’t probed for long enough to break its resistance. Lower and lower lows have made a retest of Sunday night’s 2883.50 low down to 2882.00 likely.

Exiting the bias environment and entering the noon hour under 2882.00 would suggest a deeper drop underway, next targeting 2846.00-2851.00. Otherwise, recovering 2901.00 would be a first step to absorbing this round of selling pressure, albeit still requiring the confirmation of recovering 2910.00-2911.00, too.

Post-open surge holds the overnight open.

The post-open surge pierced Sunday night’s 2917.75 opening print by 6 ticks, then reacted down to 2913.75. A sell signal is sitting one tick lower. Back above 2920.00 would resume the rally, next targeting 2927.50.

Significant overnight resistance had formed at 2904.00. The open blipped-down to touch 2894.00. Breaking under it through the open would have been problematic to a recovery. Its reaction up quickly triggered the 2903.25 buy signal, extending since then up to 2919.25.

A correction has room down to 2907.00 before suggesting something deeper underway. Something deeper would suggest that buyers weren’t strong-handed, and fresh session lows could be tested or broken.

Otherwise, no correction is needed before resuming the rally. But resuming the rally without a correction must still exceed 2927.50 through a relevant timing window to confirm that strong-handed sponsorship has absorbed the drop.

Holding up, but holding back.

The relentless overnight rally had come within 1 tick of the 2929.25 bias-up target before Payrolls was announced. Its knee-jerk reaction from 2931.00 down to 2923.00 was quickly recovered back up to 2931.00.

The relentless rally resumed, greeting the open at 2934.00. Which the first hour has overlapped repeatedly. Four of the first hour’s 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped it, suggesting a Dry Cleaners morning — difficult, perhaps better off running errands.

Maintaining positive territory throughout the first hour does suggest that buyers are strong-handed. It doesn’t prevent dipping into negative territory, but it does suggest a dip would be temporary to find more sponsorship for the rally. Alternatively, rallying out of the bias window would suggest that sponsorship has arrived already.

A second test of its 2931.50 lower-end has now pierced its upper-end to 2939.50. Resistance at 2940.00 may challenge the rally initially, but sellers aren’t any likelier to retake control.

Relentless post-open firming pierces overnight high.

The relentless overnight rally from 2915.50 had gotten to 2932.50. Its reaction down extended to 2921.00 before the open, and another 2 points lower post-open. It took several minutes, but a wide 5-point opening range resolved up.

And up. Overnight highs were just pierced by 1 ticks. The 2929.75 bias-up signal has triggered. And the 2936.50 bias-up target is in-play.

Stair-stepping higher out of the open’s range is a difficult pattern to reverse. At least, not before some sort of topping were to develop. Simply breaking lower would otherwise be likely to recover.

Meanwhile, recovering back up into 2930.00-2934.00 isn’t “half the battle” to recover, it is a separate battle. Exiting the bias environment above 2935.00-2936.00 would help to resume the post-open recovery into something more substantial.

Pullback through the open still recovers bias-up signal, then doesn’t.

Yesterday’s last-minute surge through 2947.00 into the post-close fresh high had extended to new highs at 2961.25 before midnight. The trend since then has been down. Down into Europe’s opens, down into the open and then down through the first half-hour to touch 2947.00.

Still, the 2950.50 bias-up signal was recovered in time to trigger cleanly. Its subsequent test as support did NOT hold at 10:30, invalidating the bias-up. The 2955.75 bias-up target is NOT in-play, although the overnight high’s “new Globex trend extreme” might also be an attraction.

The invalidation isn’t surprising since upside objectives are fighting the headwinds of this afternoon’s impending FOMC events. Triggering bias-up first, and THEN being invalidated does reflect excessive optimism. Regardless, back above 2953.25 would be helpful to the upside. Otherwise, a deeper pullback to 2945.00 is likely.