Post-open Review

Pre-open slip undoes overnight recovery attempt.

Gradually working higher from the 2935.75 overnight low had recovered to test yesterday’s 2944.50 cash session close by 1 point. But another news item triggered a spike down to 2939.00, greeting the open fluctuating around the 2941.50 bias-down signal.

The open spiked down immediately to 2936.00. A 4-point range has eked lower to touch the 2935.00 bias-down target. Bounces have tested buy signals, but always too early to be credible — either during a sizeable bounce limit test, or by the first reaction up from the previous trend’s extreme.

Back above 2939.00 would now be credible for recovering the 2941.50 open, if not also probing yesterday’s 2944.50 cash session close and higher. But back under 2936.00 would target a test of 2934.00 and lower. And by potentially exiting the bias environment under the open’s lows, an intraday recovery would become very unlikely.

Up in the absence of down.

The 2939.00 earlier Globex low had been threatened overnight by 5 ticks. But the 2942.00 open wasn’t threatening it, at all. Breaking under 2939.00 through the open was necessary for the Globex-flip setup.

If the setup wasn’t even threatened at the open, then it couldn’t be rejected. Its consequence couldn’t be as bullish as it would have been bearish. So, Globex-flip is irrelevant this morning.

That doesn’t prevent rallying anyway. So long as sellers weren’t retaking control, there was an attraction to higher highs. They didn’t require a retest, but that didn’t prevent rallying anyway, either.

The open surged to fresh highs attacking 2948.00. Reacting down to 2941.00 didn’t prevent triggering late bias-up above 2944.50. Now 2948.00 is being attacked again, as the 2950.50 bias-up target is in-play.

They waited, they pounced, they failed.

The overnight sideways range did break, in reaction to an econ report (GDP) at the end of the pre-open 60-90 minute window. GDP rarely influences price action, let alone triggering a 7-point surge to 2932.00.

None of which changes the setup of a sideways overnight range’s 60-90 minute breakout being likely to retrace. Which dropping through the open did, back to its 2926.50 upper-end and through it to touch the 2920.50 bias-down target.

A bounce tested the 2924.50 bias-down signal in time to invoke the grace period, which was recovered in time to trigger late no-bias. Offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is in-play, 2934.00 and 2940.75. Being a late no-bias, neither objective would become “unfinished business” if left outstanding.

Meanwhile, this being a Friday, a failed trending attempt tends to marginalize its sponsorship. And Friday morning bias signals tend to persist through the noon hour. The bounce has tested and retested 2929.75, and holding 2925.25 as support would suggest sellers’ influence is done, and the session is vulnerable to trending up.

Lower and lower lows meeting target.

Overnight action had been contained within yesterday’s last-half hour range, and that didn’t change until the open. Literally, the open. The most recent bounce up to 2935.00 had been retraced to test yesterday’s 2928.50-2929.50 lows at the open, on the way down to 2919.25. Its reaction touched the 2927.75 bias-down signal as resistance.

And the bias-down signal’s resistance resisted. Pretty well. So well, that another fresh low has touched the 2914.25 renewed bias-down target.

At least 1-minute RSI diverged positively at the low, while 3-minute RSI made at least a higher low. So far, the bounce is testing the 2923.00, and back above 2924.50 would help to confirm that backing-and-filling has found its strong-handed sponsorship.

Regardless of a bottom, already recovering some relevant resistance coming out of the bias environment would be bullish. And because the opportunity is being pursued so aggressively, not actually entering the noon hour in recovery mode would be that much more bearish.

Bias-down signal test, meet bias-up signal test.

The lower-end of yesterday afternoon’s range was tested overnight down to 2932.00. And retested. The lower-end held, and its retest launched a bounce attacking the range’s 2939.75 upper-end. The upper-end held.

Dipping through the open extended to retest the lower-end of yesterday afternoon’s range down to 2931.00. The test held. Not only the test of overnight lows, but of this morning’s 2933.25 bias-down signal.

This is a no-bias environment. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2942.00 bias-up signal is in-play.

Already 2939.00 is being pierced. Actually fulfilling the 2942.00 bias-up signal’s test would also come within 3 ticks of yesterday’s “unfinished business” at 2942.75, which would neutralize its attraction. This wouldn’t necessarily end the rally, but new objectives would need to be established.