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Pre-close View – If, Then… Market Timing

Pre-close View

Pre-close View… Readily accepted.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

es_031517_pmThe FOMC policy statement announced a thoroughly-telegraphed rate hike. Already having pulled back 4 points from rallying into the noon hour’s 2374.50 high, the news triggered a surge to 2381.00.

Its correction targeted at least a touch of 2375.50, which was then soon tested. A new upleg was launched that attacked 2383.00.

Now 2383.00 has been retested, while at last 1-minute RSI tried diverging negatively. It was still on the cusp of being overbought, so its reaction down to 2380.00 isn’t assured of reversing momentum down.

So, the intraday uptrend remains intact and next targeting 2385.50-2386.25. The attraction back to two-week old highs would start to become tenuous above there. Meanwhile, back under 2379.00 could trigger a deeper drop into the close.

Pre-close View… Bias-on.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

This morning’s no-bias had triggered after testing the 2339.75 bias-down signal. es_021717_pmAnd not by a little. Despite bouncing up to 2343.25, the open’s 2337.25 low was attacked to within 2 points.

But the mid-morning dip to 2337.75 held, as was likely, being a no-bias environment.

Price action since exiting the morning’s bias environment has trended higher. Of 7 points since the low, 3 points have printed into the afternoon bias environment began lapsing.

Fresh session highs are now attacking yesterday’s ~2346.00 close. Unchanged is natural resistance, but that’s no excuse for not closing positive. Similarly, the bullish WedEX influence is no protection against a last-minute reaction down.

There will be no hold-long (or hold-short). “Unfinished business above” remains outstanding at this morning’s 2348.25 bias-up signal.

Pre-close View… Shallow rejection, at best.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The afternoon’s 2325.75 bias-up signal triggered late, but extended quickly. The 2329.00 high is short of its 2331.50 bias-up target, but it becomes “unfinished business above.”

At least, I’ll give the 2331.50 bias-up target’s eventual test every benefit of the doubt, until disproved.

Exiting the bias environment back under its 2325.75 bias-up signal would have disproved it. Having been triggered late, that would have sufficed to invalidate the signal. In fact, 2325.75 was being tested at the final hour’s entry, but not broken.

Another fresh reaction low would be too late to disprove 2331.50 is unfinished business above. But it would be credible for extending down to 2331.50. Meanwhile, back above 2329.75 could resume the rally.

Pre-close View… New highs ahead of the close.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

es_021017_pmThis morning’s 2311.75 bias-up target was met to within 1 tick during the bias environment. This afternoon’s bias-up signal has extended to within 1 point of its 2316.75 target.

The high should be retested since its RSIs are overbought. But its retest need not be today. And it might not be, having exited the bias environment back under the noon hour’s 2313.50 high.

Maintaining a break under 2312.75 (being tested now) could correct down to 2309.75 or 2308.50, and still not reverse the trend down.

Getting carried away, and closing under yesterday’s 2307.75 high, would prevent a new trend high close today. That would mean not confirming yesterday’s breakout. It would also mean not exploiting the proximity to a new trend high close on a Friday.

Pre-close View… Teasing at the high, or afraid of it.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

Hovering at and/or around the bias signal in a noN-bias environment often resolves in the signal’s direction when the bias environment lapses. This afternoon’s 2292.25 bias-up signal did just that, as price was almost glued to it.

And now price is firming. But only barely, back up to this morning’s 2293.75 high. Still no resolution.

Often, when not exploiting that opportunity to trend in the signal’s direction, the setup will resolve in the opposite direction. That’s not yet unlikely in this setup, since price hasn’t yet resolved up.

Resolving up at all would target new highs. Meanwhile, the delay in resolving up keeps alive potential for another downdraft, first.