Pre-close View

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

Probing new highs intraday, by double digits. Observations don’t get much stronger than that. Today could form a breakout, putting into play 2227.00.

That would be subject to a second consecutive higher close tomorrow. And before then, a breakout would be subject to actually maintaining the rally through the close.

A trending session that exits the afternoon bias environment at a fresh session extreme is rarely reversed before the close. But when it is reversed, it is reversed hard. A reversal has very little time to accomplish anything predictive — like closing under the 2286.50 opening print.

Event the most bullish scenario would still allow dipping into the close, but not any deeper than 2287.25. And while it’s probably too late to enter the final hour above the bias environment high, the 3:10-3:20 proxy window could still gain traction.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The breakout from this morning’s range has persisted through the noon hour, and through the afternoon bias environment. In fact, it exited the bias environment above the noon hour’s high. And not it is also probing fresh highs into the final hour.

That’s traction, and it suggests tomorrow morning will also trend u, so long as the final hour includes a correction that doesn’t reverse momentum down.

The only unfinished business above still outstanding is the new trend high close that became required three Fridays ago. Otherwise, 2278.25 has been tested, and a 2800.00 handle is printing.

RSIs are on the cusp of being overbought, which is too close to consider a divergence. A reaction down today could still recover if done quickly. A new high close is not at all assured.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The late-morning test of the 2253.00 bias-down target had produced a bounce into the noon hour. It was testing this afternoon;s 2257.75 bias-up signal at the wrong time to trigger. A sudden surge probed it by 4 points, but that was retraced when the bias environment began lapsing.

Back above 2260.75 could extend higher intraday. Its signal would be more credible if triggered during the 3:10-3:20 position-squaring window that just opened.

Meanwhile, another bounce is touching 2260.00 at the final hour’s entry. It retraces 61.8% of the bias environment’s late surge. Back under 2256.75 would signal the bounce had failed, reversing momentum down to fresh session lows.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The 2260.75 bias-down target would have required a test had the 2266.00 bias-down signal triggered. This is despite having tested 2260.75 already during the noon hour. Bias-down didn’t actually trigger since it was still being tested both at 1:20 and 1:30. But the noN-bias environment tested 2260.75 anyway.

Bouncing from there is now testing 2266.00 as resistance. Each afternoon bias environment exit since last Friday has rallied into the close. Today may be an exception if 2266.00 holds its test. Back under 2263.00 would instead trigger another downleg.

The open’s uptrending didn’t prevent the noon hour’s drop. So it won’t necessarily prevent a closing drop. Resuming the rally would target fresh session highs above 2272.75. Resuming the decline would target yesterday’s 2253.00 low.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

This afternoon’s no-bias environment didn’t touch its 2260.75 bias-down signal in time to trigger. But it was tested well into the bias environment. And it broke sharply lower to 2253.00. This is “no-bias trending,” which requires being retraced at least to 2260.75.

Only one bar probed under last week’s 2255.00 pivotal low, while also not overlapping 2255.00. And price since then has trended back up to within 1 point of 2260.75. Its attraction is almost neutralized.

Oversold RSIs at the low will want to be retested. And just touching last week’s pivotal low all but requires testing its 2248.50 actual low. Back under 2256.50 would trigger a downleg.

Otherwise, back above 2262.00 could delay the low’s retest, and its break, until another rally leg.