Pre-close View

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The open had already tested this morning’s 2260.75 bias-down target. Triggering bias-down didn’t require its retest. But that wasn’t exploited by a recovery.

The open’s ~2260.00-2262.00 congestion wasn’t likely to launch an uninterrupted leg. Recovering to 2267.25 was retraced to 2262.00. But that wasn’t exploited by a recovery.

The noon hour consolidated narrowly at the morning’s 2266.00 bias-up signal. The afternoon bias environment was entered there, and ranged there for awhile. Not exploited, either.

So much opportunity ignored to exploit a path higher, through so many timing windows. Finally, the attraction below won out. Last night’s 2257.50 low is being tested.

Back above 2260.25 would start to suggest the selling is down. If so, then a surge fresh session highs would be possible — not the likeliest scenario, but possible. Otherwise, nothing requires trending down any deeper, but fresh lows would target 2255.00.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

the afternoon bias environment exit printed another slightly lower low, finally actually piercing yesterday afternoon’s highs. But not by much, and not for long. Reacting up entered the final hour back above yesterday’s high, and back above the overnight highs. That hasn’t attracted any new buyers, as the three-day weekend’s illiquidity is inhibiting sponsorship in either direction.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The final hour’s entry is probing fresh afternoon highs up to 2267.50. That’s above the bias environment’s high. But the rally isn’t gaining traction because the noon hour’s 2268.00 high is higher.

Recovering 2268.00 is the final hurdle to rallying into the close. Recovering it through 3:20 would have been preferable to only piercing it, so back under 2266.00 would suggest no recovery.

Rallying further to close above this morning’s highs would suggest the pullback did end with Wednesday morning’s low. And having ended the pullback, new highs would be in-play. Back under 2263.00 would instead suggest the pullback is extending down into tomorrow afternoon.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The noon hour’s probe above this morning’s 2271.50 objective to 2274.00 could have extended higher. But there was no requirement. And 2271.50 was retraced coming out of the noon hour. The upside momentum was not reinforced.

A break lower extended down sharply to 2263.25. That’s essentially yesterday’s low, which is natural support. And the no-bias environment’s probe under the 2266.75 bias-down signal was “no-bias trending” that required being retraced.

2266.75 has now held a couple of tests. Much higher would start to reverse momentum up into the close. Otherwise, almost any fresh low would resume the decline to fresh lows intraday.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The afternoon range probed lower to test 2264.00. Consolidating back up to 2266.00 for the past 60-90 minutes just missed an opportunity to reverse up. But the final hour wasn’t entered high enough.

Now the 3:10-3:20 proxy window is opening. Extending above 2266.75 could still reverse up. And it had better reverse up quickly, because downtrending into Wednesday morning is growing in likelihood.

Any credible rally should recover to fresh post-open highs above 2271.00. Unfinished business above at 2275.50 and a new trend high close remain outstanding regardless.