Pre-close View

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

The afternoon’s 2060.50 bias-up signal was overlapped in time to invoke the grace period. It held long enough to avoid triggering. Price during the no-bias environment didn’t drift back down toward its bias-down signal. It hovered.

And 2060.50 started breaking higher when the bias environment lapsing came within view. Actually, a couple of minutes earlier — not very premature, but not optimal. Extending higher to 2262.25 has reacted down to 2259.00.

The final hour was not entered any higher than 2260.50. The afternoon rally is still undermined. The alternative is not necessarily to decline, but the window is open.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAP BEGINS AT 3:33pm ET.

Breaking higher from this afternoon’s consolidation did almost literally explode higher. But only to attack 2267.00, and only briefly. That was a delayed reaction reaction to FOMC Minutes, and not knee-jerk, so its overbought RSIs do require a retest.

Meanwhile, the rally has surpassed all prior “higher prior lows,” and is now only resisted by prior highs. Reactions down from prior highs tend to be only temporary. This further improves our confidence in probing new highs.

But this afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts. Although the bias environment was exited above the noon hours high, the final hour wasn’t entered higher. And the 3:10-3:20 timing window didn’t serve by proxy — not for lack of proximity.

Probing above 2266.00 could still surge higher before the close. But its durability would be suspect, for having originated too late. And back under 2262.50 would instead start to signal momentum reversing down.

Choppy ranging tries breaking higher.

Oversold RSIs at this morning’s 2239.50 low have yet to be retested. That’s an attraction below.

Several attacks to within 1-3 ticks have stopped optimistically short of neutralizing the low. That’s potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.

Ranging choppily between two inflection points has chipped away at both 2240.25-2244.25. Finally a break higher has been attempted, but too late for it to be more than a false break. In fact, RSIs diverged negatively upon touching 2246.50. And its reaction down has already fallen 4 points.

A fresh high above 2246.50 would be credible for extending higher. Otherwise, the vulnerability is down, likely filling the gap to Friday’s 2236.50 close. Either a better bottom can form there, or else last week’s decline can resume.

Air pocket, or not, downside targets met.

REMINDER: MARKET WRAPS START EARLIER, AT 3:33 ET.

This afternoon’s 2237.25 bias-down signal was overlapped at 1:20 to invoke the grace period. It was being attacked from above to within a single tick to avoid triggering bias-down. It was pierced 2 minutes later, too late to trigger.

But it wasn’t a clean no-bias. Not even a clean late no-bias. Undermining a bottom also undermined potential for drifting flat-to-higher. So the decline extended down anyway, touching the 2232.00 bias-down target. A brief bounce has resolved down to fresh lows at 2228.00.

Oversold RSIs prevent a durable bounce. Higher lows, but still oversold. And now the final hour has been entered under the bias environment lows, which was exited under the noon hour lows. Sellers have gained traction, so another corrective bounce would trigger above 2232.50. But trending down into the close wouldn’t be surprising.

REMINDER: The daily market Wrap begins at 3:33pm ET.

Taking the renewed bias-down signal with a grain of salt never resulted in also taking a buy signal. The afternoon’s 2249.00 bias-down target was officially broken at 1:20 but essentially part of the ongoing consolidation. Nevertheless, a shallow probe above it stopped far short of the nearest buy signal, and fresh lows were probed down to 2244.50.

1-minute RSI diverged positively into that low. Now recovering 2248.00 would be credible for launching a corrective bounce. But only a corrective bounce.

Having probed all prior lows except 2243.00 whose oversold RSIs require a retest, bouncing first would be only temporary. Extending down today to retest 2243.00 would not be required to hold. Its test wouldn’t even be any likelier to hold, being the product of an ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs.

Not yet testing 2243.00 today would allow its test overnight or briefly at tomorrow’s open to be isolated by a well-timed reversal up. Otherwise, its break would next target 2215.00 down to 2205.00.