Pre-close View

Pullback complete, but rally not yet resumed.

MARKET WRAP BEGINS A HALF-HOUR EARLY AT 3:33 ET IN THE CHARTROOM.

Having tested and held the 2264.75 pullback limit, bouncing more than 2 points would trigger an inflection up, and likely resume the rally. But bouncing 2 points has been exceeded only by 1 tick, only a couple of times. And now the bias environment has lapsed into the final hour.

Back under 2264.75 at this stage would start to signal another downleg underway. The afternoon’s 2263.50 bias-down signal would no longer need to define the range’s lower-end. But the likelier scenario remains resuming the rally.

REPEAT: MARKET WRAP BEGINS A HALF-HOUR EARLY AT 3:33 ET

Ending volatility, or resuming the decline.

This morning’s test of the 2252.25 objective was retraced up to 2258.00. That was through the noon hour and during the bias environment. The no-bias environment’s 2256.00 bias-up signal needed to define the window’s upper-end, which it did, attracting price back down to it as the bias environment lapsed.

And then lower. The 3:10-3:20 proxy window extended down to 2253.00. The only lower support is obligatory, it’s the upper-end of the shallow consolidation off the morning’s low. Any lower would resume the decline, next targeting 2249.50.

It’s late, and it’s thin, so extending down isn’t as reliable today as it would be earlier in the day, or in the week. Meanwhile, bounces should be limited to 2256.00.

Post-open “action” hovers at its lows.

Last night’s range measured essentially 2 points wide, except for a couple of late probes lower. Post-open action measures essentially 2 points wide, except for an early probe higher.

Two sides to the same coin, and not only for their measurements. Both windows had potential to rally. But last night’s opportunity was well before this morning’s open, while today’s opportunity is just before the close.

And we’re now just before the close. Not already rallying at this morning’s open made a rally unlikely until late-afternoon, if at all. A fresh high above 2266.00 could start a short-squeeze back to yesterday’s 2269.50 high. Otherwise, the pattern remains vulnerable to extending to fresh session lows.

This afternoon’s distraction is world events.

Not to minimalize the tragedy of it all, but several terrorist actions around the globe are having a similar effect this afternoon as did the president’s press conference Friday.

This afternoon’s 2261.00 bias-up signal didn’t trigger, but it was practically busting at the seams during the bias environment. It was probed up to 2262.50, and then retested as the bias environment began lapsing. No longer being required to define the range’s upper-end could have repeated the open’s surge, but that was overtaken by headlines.

Several terrorist actions around the globe have injected an unknown that wasn’t part of the market’s earlier calculus. That’s not so much bearish as it is inhibitive to rallying.But not rallying IS potentially bearish, since there is “unfinished business below” at this morning’s 2251.25 bias-down signal.

Not trending back up through 3:10-3:20 makes rallying unlikely before the close. Not probing any deeper would allow the 3:37 position-squaring window another chance to rally. Meanwhile, flat-to-lower is likely.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Today’s post-market Wrap will be held a half-hour early, beginning at 3:33pm ET.

This afternoon’s 2260.25 bias-down signal had held two tests during the noon hour, and did not trigger. A pattern had formed suggesting a break lower anyway, with room to the afternoon’s 2254.25 bias-down target.

A break lower quickly slid to 2252.75. But every bar probing under the 2254.25 target also overlapped it. No lower target was put into play. No lower target, but an objective was created — oversold 1-mijnute and 3-minute RSIs at the low require its retest.

Maybe later. The break’s timing makes it “no-bias trending” that requires retracing at least the 2260.25 bias-down signal. Currently, it’s being attacked to within 2 ticks, which is 1 tick more than necessary to neutralize satisfy the requirement. There’s also potential to the 2263.25 1:20 print, and then higher.

Maybe later. The 1:20 print is often retested, too, but not always. Back under 2256.25 would target fresh session lows. And that would likely also test oversold RSIs at yesterday’s 2243.00 low.