Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon May 13, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: No econ reports or Fed speakers are yet scheduled for the new week. Tuesday’s calendar isn’t much busier or higher profile.
NO REPORTS SCHEDULED
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu May 9, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s econ reports finally get interesting with Thursday’s busy calendar. It includes several high-profile and reliably influential reports, including the Fed Chair and other Fed speakers. Any noticeable price reaction to pre-open reports is likely to be duplicated by post-open reports.
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
*Jerome Powell Speaks
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
10:45 AM ET
*30-Yr Bond Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:15 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging narrowly around 1.1235 resistance overnight dipping Tuesday. But having completed a pullback that held 1.1200, the pattern remains vulnerable to almost literally exploding higher.
Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday’s gap down came from a position of strength, since Monday’s post-open dip to 1278.00 had recovered into positive territory. Tuesday’s recovery probed above Monday’s highs, attacking Sunday night’s 1287.00 highs with no excuse not to trend higher.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap down to 14.81 and its immediate reversal up stopped short of filling the gap back to Monday’s 14.94 close, which was similar to Monday’s gap down. Both sessions were also inside days, biased-upward, which tends to resolve bearishly if not rejected by gapping up sharply.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks once again triggered a flight-to-safety that gapped up to the recent intraday range’s upper-end at 148-06 and then extended to test the 148-24 recent overnight high as stocks fell further. Back under 147-24 and 147-14 would signal the trend reversing down, which should then develop aggressively.
Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s recovery reacted by trending down overnight to gap down Tuesday, and then dip deeper. Closing above 61.50 would suggest the dip had been absorbed, but under 60.50 would signal a new downleg underway. Wednesday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.
Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up slightly Tuesday and flat-to-higher ranging still stopped short of recovering the 2.56 buy signal, but at least creates potential to avoid greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… LATE BIAS-DOWN.
Noon hour’s recovery attempt fails.
Retesting Sunday night’s 2883.50 low had become the next lower attraction,
its objective being 2881.00-2882.00. which was pierced just after noon, and launched a noon hour bounce.
The bounce recovered up to 2895.25, twice including an interim 5-point dip. Then the noon hour’s exit resumed the same trajectory as its entry.
The 2880.00 bias-down signal was tested in time to invoke the grace period. When it triggered at 1:30, the 2873.50 bias-down target was being met to within 3 ticks. It has been probed down to 2871.00, with potential to 2870.50.
The path down to 2846.00-2851.00 remains intact. But the bias-down target has been met early in its window. Being down so much intraday with at least 1-minute RSI diverging positively at the low, be aware of the potential for a steep reversal up — probably only a temporary correction if it even develops.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 8, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The only econ report of any consequence to price action Wednesday is the EIA, which is influences price action indirectly through a Crude Oil reaction.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET