Pre-market Tour

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Gapping down Sunday night in reaction to China trade talks news presented the same opportunity as it always has for any other shallower, intraday reaction, regardless of direction. Fading the headline reaction has been a reliable trade, which overnight traders already began exploiting from the 2883.50 Globex low. That was 63 points under Friday’s close, which recovered to 2904.00-2905.00 ahead of Monday’s open. The open’s blip-down to 2894.00 reacted up immediately and through the morning to probe Thursday afternoon’s 2920.00 by nearly 5 points. A 10-point correction through the noon hour reacted back up to attack session highs. But the no-bias environment required waiting to resume the rally, which it did with a vengeance surging to 2938.00. The last half-hour attacked 2930.00.

Overnight action’s new info…
Another China trade talks headline preceded the Globex open hard, triggering a spike down to 2910.00. Ranging sideways was resisted by 2920.00, until another headline triggered a 15-point spike up to 2930.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. Trending down gradually retraced it all to consolidate just under 2920.00, and now another spike down is testing 2913.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing yesterday above Thursday’s 2920.00 afternoon high suggested buyers have regained traction to potentially retest last week’s highs. Exiting today’s open back under 2920.00 would invalidate that traction, at least requiring buyers to form new traction to avoid reversing down. Temporary backing-and-filling would be optimal holding post-open tests of 2920.00 as support. Probes down to 2910.00-2911.00 could still recover. But any lower through a relevant timing window could put yesterday’s pre-open lows into play.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2918.00 would likely also exceed the 2921.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would likely at least trigger the 2927.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2930.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted optimistically, but not so optimistically as to be bearish from a contrarian perspective. In fact, the 10-point rally from 2918.00 to 2928.00 greeted Friday’s open at 2934.00. Then it extended to 2949.00 into the afternoon bias environment. But no traction was gained and the balance of the session ranged sideways as the cash session closed at 2946.00. The afternoon’s bias-up had just triggered and its 2951.75 target was left outstanding. Also left outstanding was an intraday retest of Wednesday’s 2961.75 overnight high.

Overnight action’s new info…
Reports of difficulties in China trade talks were confirmed Sunday when Trump tweeted that tariffs will rise on Friday. Globex gapped down 28 points to Thursday’s 2918.00 close and collapsed another 24 points from there to 2893.50. A bounce resolved down to 2883.50, and a more gradual reaction up to 2903.50 has defined a trading range that persisted through Europe’s opens.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Any downside with a greater purpose than simply backing-and-filling would require gapping down sharply — at the very least, under Friday’s 2931.50 post-open lows. That doesn’t seem to be a problem based on current indications. Of course, opening too much deeper without gaining traction along the way can inhibit sponsorship, let alone reinforcements. The overnight collapse’s catalyst isn’t organic. Rather, it is in reaction to China trade talks developments. Fading reactions to those headlines has been highly reliable. Exiting the open back above 2920.00 would start to signal that sellers weren’t gaining traction. Recovering 2931.50 would still be necessary for putting into play a retest of last week’s highs. Otherwise, breaking under 2886.00-2892.00 through a relevant timing window would next target 2846.00-2851.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Price is too far removed from this morning’s bias parameters to escape renewing the bias-down signal.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s late collapse to and through its 2919.50 target was corrected overnight to its 2930.00-2934.00 objective at 2932.25. Dipping back down to 2919.50 into the open reacted back up to test the pre-open high. Triggering bias-up cleanly at 10:15 was invalidated at 10:30 as the balance of the morning bias environment collapsed down to 2901.00. Bouncing back to 2919.50 into the afternoon bias environment ranged narrowly sideways through the close, but for a momentary dip to 2910.00. .

Overnight action’s new info…
Choppy sideways ranging around 2919.50 broke higher to 2926.00. But only momentarily before settling back to 2922.00. Europe’s opens triggered another break higher to 2928.50 whose reaction is now trying to hold 2926.00 as support.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
The overnight rally’s slope isn’t so steep as to labeled excessive optimism. But it is optimism anyway, and its sponsorship hasn’t gained any traction for the effort — yesterday morning’s 2932.75 prior high is still resistance. Having tested and retested 2930.00-2934.00, another retest would likely break higher. But 2936.00 and preferably 2940.00 must be recovered through a relevant timing window to confirm momentum is reversing up. Next higher objectives would be 2950.00 (+/-), 2956.00, and a retest of the 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” probably up to 2969.00. Otherwise, not much support exists below in case of a negative reaction to the Employment Situation report. Perhaps some at 2892.00-2894.00, although it was already tested overnight there weeks ago. Any lower would target 2846.00-2851.00.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] There is no preliminary indication ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
Excessive optimism preceded Wednesday’s open, from surging at Tuesday’s close on AAPL’s earnings to producing a “new Globex trend extreme” overnight. The 2961.25 overnight high qualifies as a “New Globex trend extreme” requiring eventual intraday retest. None of which prevented the 2954.25 open from cycling down to 2943.50 at the noon hour’s low, with an interim bounce up to 2956.00. Even that had stopped optimistically short of fulfilling Tuesday’s unfinished business below at 2941.50. The FOMC policy statement reaction bounced back up to 2956.00, but no higher. The Fed Chair Q&A reaction was quite different, reacting down to 2939.00 through the bias environment exit. Consolidating there broke lower again through the last half-hour, collapsing to 2924.50 at the cash session close and 2921.00 before settlement.

Overnight action’s new info…
Just closing under 2935.00 or 2930.00 would have been a compelling hold-short, likely to gap down to 2919.00. So much of that potential had been borrowed already before the close to make it no longer compelling, creating potential for a bounce. Post-close action did probe 2919.00 down to the 2915.50 Globex action. Trending up relentlessly since then touched 2932.25. A blip-down to 2925.00 just snapped back up to 2929.00.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Recovering 2930.00-2934.00 is big, but not quite a rejection of the overnight break. Big, because the probe under Tuesday’s 2926.00 low could be isolated away from intraday action, for which there was otherwise no bullish reason to probe. That’s not enough to reject the break, but it helps position the open to extend the overnight recovery up to 2949.75-2950.50. And revisiting the 2950.00 area should include a retest of 2956.00, whose resistance is probably no longer influential enough to prevent retesting Tuesday night’s 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme.” Otherwise, containing the 2930.00-2934.00 bounce and resuming the decline would next target 2910.00-2911.00, a very difficult level to recover from.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2931.50 would be likely to trigger the 2929.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2927.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close…
The recovery from an overnight dip was already retracing into Tuesday’s 2941.50 open. The retracement extended to test overnight lows down to 2935.00, collapsing from there to 2926.00. Simultaneously oversold RSIs helped to launch a reaction that entered the noon hour back above the earlier 2935.00 low. Still firming into the afternoon bias environment didn’t firm enough in time to trigger the 2941.50 bias-up signal. That didn’t prevent no-bias trending from probing above it anyway, or from hovering at the afternoon’s 2947.00 bias-up target. Anxiousness ahead of AAPL’s post-close earnings probably paralyzed price action there. A blip-up at the close touched 2950.50.

Overnight action’s new info…
Surging to 2956.50 in reaction to AAPL’s earnings reaction (AMD did well, too) neutralized Monday afternoon’s unfinished business at 2954.25. Consolidating into early Globex was recovered to extend the rally to 2961.25 before midnight. Complexity of the upleg qualifies its high as a “new Globex trend extreme” requiring intraday retest, often the same day. Price action since then drifted lower several points, eventually steepening to test this morning’s 2955.75 bias-up target by 3 ticks, and the upper-end of yesterday’s post-close surge.

If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
All price action above Friday’s 2951.50 high has developed after yesterday’s close. It’s impressive enough that the next session’s 2926.00 low was recovered intraday at least to within proximity of the high. But already trending above it and by so much suggests pessimism is in hiding, but that a few pessimists have been found and shot. This can prove bearish from a contrarian perspective, although not too pleasant for pessimists in the interim, in more ways than one. But it is exclusively an overnight rally, essentially, which can become an intraday decline if the open doesn’t quickly attract intraday reinforcements. That’s without even considering the weighty afternoon events, or any negative pre-open earnings surprises. Trending beyond an established range is already difficult ahead of an afternoon’s FOMC events, or difficult to maintain. Extending last night’s rally this morning anyway would next target 2969.00, and be difficult to defend. Backing-and-filling ahead of the report could become a much deeper reversal if the 2950.50 bias-up signal doesn’t trigger.

First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2957.25 would be likely to exceed the 2955.75 bias-up signal at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2953.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2950.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2947.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.