The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Complacency, not.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Gapping down Sunday night in reaction to China trade talks news presented the same opportunity as it always has for any other shallower, intraday reaction, regardless of direction. Fading the headline reaction has been a reliable trade, which overnight traders already began exploiting from the 2883.50 Globex low. That was 63 points under Friday’s close, which recovered to 2904.00-2905.00 ahead of Monday’s open. The open’s blip-down to 2894.00 reacted up immediately and through the morning to probe Thursday afternoon’s 2920.00 by nearly 5 points. A 10-point correction through the noon hour reacted back up to attack session highs. But the no-bias environment required waiting to resume the rally, which it did with a vengeance surging to 2938.00. The last half-hour attacked 2930.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Another China trade talks headline preceded the Globex open hard, triggering a spike down to 2910.00. Ranging sideways was resisted by 2920.00, until another headline triggered a 15-point spike up to 2930.50 ahead of Europe’s opens. Trending down gradually retraced it all to consolidate just under 2920.00, and now another spike down is testing 2913.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Closing yesterday above Thursday’s 2920.00 afternoon high suggested buyers have regained traction to potentially retest last week’s highs. Exiting today’s open back under 2920.00 would invalidate that traction, at least requiring buyers to form new traction to avoid reversing down. Temporary backing-and-filling would be optimal holding post-open tests of 2920.00 as support. Probes down to 2910.00-2911.00 could still recover. But any lower through a relevant timing window could put yesterday’s pre-open lows into play.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2918.00 would likely also exceed the 2921.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would likely at least trigger the 2927.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2930.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.