Market Wrap

Sunday night’s 2883.50 low is irrelevant, despite being 63 points under Friday’s close. Much more important is that Thursday afternoon’s 2920.00 high was recovered through the close. A new rally leg may not be underway, but retesting last week’s 2961.25 high may be in-play.

Avoiding a deeper meltdown Monday largely depended on holding above 2892.00-2894.00. It could have been probed if recovered during a relevant timing window. But only its upper-end was touched, and only by the session’s first minute. The balance of the morning trended up to 2924.50.

The afternoon’s no-bias environment restrained itself from breaking higher until coming within view of lapsing. Then its 2922.50 bias-up signal broke higher with a vengeance. The next higher candidate for correcting the recovery was tested at 2934.75 before entering the final hour. Fluctuating equally around 2934.75 up to 2938.25 reacted down to 2932.00 before the close.

No new “unfinished business” was left outstanding. The gap back up to Friday’s close doesn’t require being filled. But just avoiding a reversal down — which is not at all assured — would confirm new highs are in-play.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted by an optimistic overnight rally from 2918.00. Not too optimistic as to be bearish from a contrarian perspective. In fact, Friday’s 2934.00 open was greeted higher, and the rally extended to 2949.00 into the afternoon bias environment. No traction was gained and the balance of the session ranged sideways, but not before triggering bias-up.

The afternoon’s 2951.75 target was left outstanding. Resistance along the way to it at 2950 (+/-) would be more predictive than influential, meaning that the resolution to its test would be more influential than it would fulfill buying pressure. Above the 2950.00 area would target a retest of 2956.00, and there’s little reason to even visit it other than to break higher. Unfinished business above remains outstanding at 2961.75, which could be tested up to 2969.00.

Any downside with a greater purpose than backing-and-filling would require gapping down sharply — at the very least, under Friday’s 2931.50 post-open lows. Any less weaker weak open would likely be only temporary backing-and-filling intent upon recovering to fulfill the above paragraph’s objectives.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND’S SATURDAY REVIEW.

Wednesday’s late collapse had extended to and through the 2919.50 objective for the following open, making the pattern vulnerable to a corrective bounce. The correction’s likely objective at 2930.00-2934.00 was mostly probed overnight to 2932.25, and then 1 tick higher post-open. An interim dip back down to 2919.50 held the open.

The 13-point post-open corrective bounce wasn’t Thursday’s only rally effort. Neither was it the largest. But it did make it easier for another effort to succeed, having tested and retested 2930.00-2934.00, so another retest would likely break higher. Even then, 2936.00 must be recovered through a relevant timing window, preferably 2940.00. Next higher objectives would be 2950.00 (+/-), 2956.00, and a retest of the 2961.25 “new Globex trend extreme,” probably up to 2969.00.

Meanwhile, trending is difficult overnight ahead of an Employment Situation report. The impending event probably caused Thursday afternoon’s narrow sideways ranging. Not much support exists below. Possibly at 2892.00-2894.00, although it was already tested overnight there weeks ago. Any lower would target 2846.00-2851.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Wednesday was greeted by multiple instances of excessive optimism that I detailed in the pre-open Market Tour. None of which would necessarily prevent retesting the 2961.25 overnight high’s “New Globex trend extreme.” But they did. The high was only attacked again intraday to within 5 points. Twice.

Monday’s “unfinished business” above at 2954.25 had been met overnight, but it was also Wednesday’s open. A couple of big downlegs eventually touched 2943.50 at the noon hour’s low — stopping optimistically short of Tuesday’s unfinished business below at 2941.50. Down 20 points from the overnight high, and still showing signs of optimism.

Greeting the FOMC policy statement from just above 2949.50 was likely to extend in that direction, and returned to the morning’s 2956.00 high. Despite probably being only obligatory resistance, it was still resistance. And its test coincided with the Fed Chair’s Q&A, which evoked quite a different sentiment — reacting down 17 points to 2939.00.

A compelling hold-short would have been considered on a close under 2935.00 with the likelihood for gapping down to 2919.50. But the close had dropped already to 2924.50, reversing the odds. Post-close action has already extended down to 2916.00.

A lot can happen overnight. Recovering 2930.00-2934.00 would be big, but a retest of Tuesday night’s highs requires recovering 2949.75-2950.50. If this were Friday, then extending down sharply intraday would be very likely, but it’s at least still possible. There’s room down to 2910.00-2911.00 without yet falling over the edge, but it’s a very difficult level to recover from.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Monday afternoon had hesitated to extend above 2951.50 ahead of post-close GOOGL earnings. That became a late dip that extended down through the close to 2942.00 and then to 2936.00 overnight. All of which could have been reversed had the overnight bounce to 2945.50 been maintained. But its reaction greeted the open too low and the overnight low’s retest eventually resolved down sharply to 2926.00.

Monday’s “unfinished business” above at 2954.25 would seem to be in another universe at that point. Unfinished business was created below on oversold RSIs at the morning’s 2926.00 low. None of which prevented the morning’s bias environment exit from surging back into the 2935.00-2940.00 post-open range. Or from probing above the afternoon’s 2941.50 bias-up signal, despite already triggering no-bias.

AAPL’s post-close earnings is probably responsible for hovering at the afternoon’s 2947.00 bias-up target — despite not triggering bias-up, and being no-bias trending. And now a last-minute surge to 2950.50 has extended sharply higher to 2956.50 in reaction to AAPL’s favorable earnings reaction. AMD did well, too.

Unfinished business above is neutralized. Extending the rally Wednesday morning will be difficult ahead of the afternoon’s FOMC events. Potential to back-and-fill is likelier than actually reversing the trend down. Extending higher would next target 2969.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.