The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… On the way to the forum.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Friday’s Employment Situation report was greeted optimistically, but not so optimistically as to be bearish from a contrarian perspective. In fact, the 10-point rally from 2918.00 to 2928.00 greeted Friday’s open at 2934.00. Then it extended to 2949.00 into the afternoon bias environment. But no traction was gained and the balance of the session ranged sideways as the cash session closed at 2946.00. The afternoon’s bias-up had just triggered and its 2951.75 target was left outstanding. Also left outstanding was an intraday retest of Wednesday’s 2961.75 overnight high.
Overnight action’s new info…
Reports of difficulties in China trade talks were confirmed Sunday when Trump tweeted that tariffs will rise on Friday. Globex gapped down 28 points to Thursday’s 2918.00 close and collapsed another 24 points from there to 2893.50. A bounce resolved down to 2883.50, and a more gradual reaction up to 2903.50 has defined a trading range that persisted through Europe’s opens.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Any downside with a greater purpose than simply backing-and-filling would require gapping down sharply — at the very least, under Friday’s 2931.50 post-open lows. That doesn’t seem to be a problem based on current indications. Of course, opening too much deeper without gaining traction along the way can inhibit sponsorship, let alone reinforcements. The overnight collapse’s catalyst isn’t organic. Rather, it is in reaction to China trade talks developments. Fading reactions to those headlines has been highly reliable. Exiting the open back above 2920.00 would start to signal that sellers weren’t gaining traction. Recovering 2931.50 would still be necessary for putting into play a retest of last week’s highs. Otherwise, breaking under 2886.00-2892.00 through a relevant timing window would next target 2846.00-2851.00.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Price is too far removed from this morning’s bias parameters to escape renewing the bias-down signal.