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A drachma here, a drachma there, pretty soon you’re talking about real money. – If, Then… Market Timing

A drachma here, a drachma there, pretty soon you’re talking about real money.

Will all these Grexit headlines add up, too?

The ongoing story of Greece”s repayment struggles is not a new story. Each headline may be news, but it”s not really new. None of which prevents any headline from impacting price. It”s just that the market has repeatedly recovered.

So, here we are again, a perfectly good recovery effort having been derailed by news from Greece that an upcoming loan payment is questionable. News, but not new.

The pre-open test of 2101.50 support had bounced through the open to attack 2109.50. An offsetting test of the bias-up signal was a brass ring away.

The headline drove price down to this morning”s 2098.00 bias-down target. Its retest reacted up to touch the 2103.50 bias-up signal. Recovering it by 10:30 would have been able to trend higher this morning, but it held. And fresh lows tested 2090.00 support.

Now the noon hour has been entered back above a relevant resistance at 2093.50 to suggest that sellers are done. Entering the noon hour above 2095.25 would have suggested buyers regained control, but it”s being probed only now. So, that will be left to triggering the 2098.50 bias-up signal.

Greeting more Grexit headlines today would likely have a similar effect if greeted from weakness. And that”s an issue if 2103.50 hasn”t yet recovered. Meanwhile, back under 2093.50 would start to signal another downdraft underway. And possibly also another Grexit headline coming.