Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… NO-BIAS TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL.
Does the market care? It’s range is being probed anyway.
Sloshing around through the open bled into the bias environment, triggering bias-down and repeatedly attacking its 2935.00 bias-down target. 
The target expanded to 2933.00-2934.00, with plenty of time for its test to be recovered before marginalizing buyers for the day. In fact, its test plunged to 2926.00, and still recovered in time to avoid marginalizing buyers.
Meanwhile, simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs left outstanding at the 2926.00 low require an eventual retest. That didn’t prevent extending the bounce to fresh post-open highs testing the pre-open 2945.50 high. Which is “no-bias trending,” since the 2941.50 bias-up signal held its test through 1:20 to trigger no-bias. So, 2941.50 is likely to be retraced at or through the bias environment exit.
The balance of the session is vulnerable not so much to trending as it is to gravitating toward one end of the range or the other. Exiting the bias environment back within the 2935.00-2940.00 post-open range — especially under it — would likely extend down to the 2926.00 low. Leaving its attraction outstanding as “unfinished business” would make a retest of yesterday’s highs. likelier to reverse down.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed May 1, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open ADP is not only high-profile and influential to price action, it also offers a chance to gauge market sentiment ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Being a pre-open report, any noticeable reaction is likely to be duplicated in reaction to the post-open reports. Two of which are also both high-profile and influential. As if the day’s econ calendar isn’t busy enough, the afternoon’s FOMC policy statement and Fed Chair Q&A are the most influential to price action.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*FOMC Meeting Announcement
2:00 PM ET
*Fed Chair Press Conference
2:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2939.50 | 2941.50 |
| …would target | 2945.00 | 2947.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2932.75 | 2934.00 |
| …would target | 2925.75 | 2928.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… BIAS-DOWN.
Pre-open slip undoes overnight recovery attempt.
Gradually working higher from the 2935.75 overnight low had recovered to test yesterday’s 2944.50 cash session close by 1 point. But another news item triggered a spike down to 2939.00, greeting the open fluctuating around the 2941.50 bias-down signal.
The open spiked down immediately to 2936.00. A 4-point range has eked lower to touch the 2935.00 bias-down target. Bounces have tested buy signals, but always too early to be credible — either during a sizeable bounce limit test, or by the first reaction up from the previous trend’s extreme.
Back above 2939.00 would now be credible for recovering the 2941.50 open, if not also probing yesterday’s 2944.50 cash session close and higher. But back under 2936.00 would target a test of 2934.00 and lower. And by potentially exiting the bias environment under the open’s lows, an intraday recovery would become very unlikely.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… With, or without.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Two probes of fresh highs Sunday night attacking 2947.00 lacked the complexity to label them “new Globex trend extremes,” so they didn’t require intraday retest. That didn’t prevent fresh post-open highs, especially after an overnight dip to 2938.00 was recovered to avoid forming a bearish Globex-flip setup. Two bias-up signals triggered, but only the morning’s 2950.50 bias-up target was met. The afternoon’s 2954.25 bias-up target became “unfinished business,” attacked only to 2951.50. Perhaps it was anxiousness ahead of GOOGL’s post-close earnings that inhibited rallying higher, instead retracing to 2942.00 through the close.
Overnight action’s new info…
The anxiousness was well-founded as GOOGL’s miss plunged 100 points. That didn’t exactly inspire the market, which extended down to 2940.00 through early Globex. Poor economic news from China triggered a spike down to test 2936.00, which was mostly recovered through midnight. That has gradually recovered to attack 2944.00.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Tuesday’s econ calendar is very heavy with plenty of reports, and Wednesday’s calendar is very weighty with FOMC events. The quarterly earnings onslaught continues, and this stage continues shaping a different profile than the first round of reports. GE just surprised to the upside, but not enough by itself to recover yesterday’s unfinished business another 11 points higher. Several econ reports are staggered through the open that could either help or hinder a recovery. Maintaining an open in positive territory would be a good first step. Otherwise, the unfinished business above need not prevent a sizeable interim pullback — and last night’s probe under both Sunday night and Monday’s lows suggests some sort of pullback is nearing. Regardless, intraday trending will likely become inhibited again this afternoon ahead of post-close earnings due from AAPL.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2945.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2941.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2940.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.