Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2262.00 | 2256.50 |
| …would target | 2266.50 | 2261.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2252.50 | 2247.25 |
| …would target | 2247.00 | 2241.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Monday afternoon hovered in negative territory, just above the 2246.25 session low at 2248.00, through multiple consecutive timing windows. This is patient pessimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Meanwhile, repeatedly bouncing to the range’s 2251.50 upper-end repeatedly failed to break higher, despite piercing it higher and higher each time. This is ineffectual optimism, which is also potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Hold-short was avoided although the only unfinished business above is an eventual new trend high close. But that is not at all precluded from waiting for a multi-session pullback to develop. If that’s what is already underway, then its likely objectives are 2215.00 and probably also 2205.00. Rallying first would target a retest of Sunday night’s 2265.00 high.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Stuck in limbo.
Negative territory, but not declining.
This afternoon’s no-bias environment ranged between two inflection points at 2248.00-2251.50. Both were touched, neither was broken. The bias environment began lapsing an hour ago, and still that range persists.
All in negative territory.
Ranging sideways in negative territory does not reflect stability. It does not suggest that all of the downside momentum — from retracing the overnight and the post-open surges — has been absorbed. The burden of proof is on buyers and yet positive territory isn’t yet recovered, with almost all relevant timing windows elapsed.
Maintaining this template through the close would be vulnerable to trending down overnight. Just closing today under Friday’s late consolidation low of 2151.75 would start to signal the rally’s momentum had given way to a corrective pullback. Closing above Friday’s 2254.25 would target a retest of Sunday night’s high.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up sharply Monday morning nevertheless only held a natural retest of higher prior lows while filling the gap back to Thursday’s 1.0620 close. Slightly higher highs suggest the 1.0685 sell signal will be revisited before reversing back down, unless first closing back under 1.0610.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight down to 1152.50 were not revisited intraday Monday, which instead bounced back up to test 1166.00 resistance. Sunday night’s low doesn’t require being retested before a rally begins, but some sort of failed selling effort is likely.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Sunday night’s momentary dip to 16.77 reacted up aggressively to isolate its probe under 16.90 to the overnight. This leaves no bullish reason to further delay rallying. In fact, extending above 17.10 does signal the pullback has ended. Filling the gap back to Wednesday’s 17.27 close might inhibit extending higher immediately, perhaps to await Gold completing its own bottom.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh low overnight at 147-10 was attacked to only 147-22 post open Monday. Closing lower Monday but within Sunday night’s range would not fulfill the confirmed breakout’s requirement for at least an eventual third lower close — but it would allow probing fresh lows intraday to recover.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s open gapped up sharply through the 52.75 target, which became the pullback limit. Reacting down Monday morning held the pullback limit’s test down to 52.55. to test/hold it. Holding it would be optimal for maintaining the next higher objective at 56.15.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night from 3.75 to and through the 3.59 sell signal extended lower Monday to test the 3.47 prior sell signal. The gap back up to 3.75 may yet be revisited.
Mid-day Update… Right-turn, Clyde.
Reversal not yet confirmed, but the burden of proof has shifted.
Buyers have failed to exploit multiple opportunities to extend the rally:
o Last night’s opening surge didn’t form a required retest.
o Probing above Friday’s high was isolated to the overnight.
o The post-open probe above Friday’s high was isolated between the opening 15 minutes of volatility and the 10:15 bias timing widow.
o The post-open surge held a 61.8% retracement of the overnight reaction.
o And the bias environment’s test of the open’s low resolved down.
None of which is yet conclusive to signal the trend reversing down. This morning’s 2253.25 and this afternoon’s 2247.25 bias signals held off attempts to trigger them And now this afternoon’s bias signal is being tested, too late/early for its probe to be strong-handed sponsorship.
The bigger picture is vulnerable to beginning a multi-session pullback today. There’s no bearish reason for this afternoon not to be in decline already. Ranging narrowly sideways and then gapping down sharply tomorrow would be credible. Otherwise, any further delay would make last night’s high likely to be retested.