Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday wasn’t likely to end the rally. But it can be corrected down to 1.0650 and still be likely to recover for fresh highs — which would likely be tested if Thursday isn’t already extending Wednesday’s bounce.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to and through the 1178.50 pullback limit that was broken Tuesday probed temporarily above the 1180.00 trigger, which closing above should launch a substantial rally.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday morning’s surge confirms that Tuesday’s inside day hovering at Monday’s highs was not bearish. Pullbacks meanwhile should hold any test of 17.00-17.10.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday morning doesn’t honor the immediate necessity to resume the decline — at least for probing fresh lows — or else a bottom may be forming. Still overlapping 151-05 does prevent gaining upside traction.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Weak EIA data triggered a deeper dip Wednesday morning that probed under the 50.50 pullback limit by 75 cents. There is no more room or time remaining to resume the rally, or at least to try temporarily, if the 52.75 target remains in-play.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing another fresh high overnight at 3.75 needed to extend, or at least be maintained, to greet Thursday’s EIA report in a position of strength. The entire gain was retraced at least to fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Closing negative would greet EIA from a position of weakness.
Mid-day Update… The anti-antiTrump rally?
Hyperbolic relentless rally probing new highs.
I’ve been repeating in the chaRTroom to reconsider stepping in front of persistently overbought 3-mijnute RSI. It is usually very unprofitable, except for one time, with many more 
points and much more time than expected in between. Today’s example is already 19 points and three timing windows long.
Meanwhile, all “unfinished business above” is now fulfilled. At least, all that was required up to the 2220.00 objective which triggered two weeks ago above 2192.00. This afternoon’s 2222.00 bias-up target was exceeded in time to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2232.25, which is being pierced now by 2 points.
Until persistently overbought 3-minute RSI is undone, any reaction down would be only temporary. And it would likely target 2222.00. Otherwise, there is no requirement for a temporary dip, and room for noise above 2232.25 is 2235.25-2237.00.
Today’s only signal triggered above 2210.25, and no pullback limit has been violated. This isn’t the largest single signal we’ve ever traded, but it’s by far the largest single buy signal.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 8, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Thursday’s ECB policy statement would be high-profile and influential to price action already, even without the press conference following it. That’s when Mario Draghi speaks, and he is very reliable for moving markets sharply, often in both directions during the same event.
*ECB policy statement
7:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2218.00 | 2217.00 |
| …would target | 2222.25 | 2222.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2209.00 | 2208.00 |
| …would target | 2202.50 | 2201.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Optimists a little less reluctant.
Barely triggered grace period for bias-up.
Opening range developed for so long that its eventual break higher came far too late to trigger the 2113.00 bias-up signal. But a late surge’s errant tick did barely touch 2113.00 within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period through 10:30.
Anyway, yesterday afternoon’s rally gained traction, so this morning is likely to trend up. So, probing above 2113.00 at 10:30 would be bullish in two regards. Not yet probing higher by then would be bearish — at least providing context for any higher highs to resolve poorly.
The late extension high, and surging only to 2113.00 and the overnight high, suggest that optimism still hasn’t become excessive. And from a contrarian perspective, that still suggests more upside.