Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2207.50 | 2206.50 |
| …would target | 2212.25 | 2211.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2198.50 | 2197.50 |
| …would target | 2193.00 | 2192.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
2199.75 was put into play Wednesday morning. The afternoon bias environment fulfilled it. RSIs diverged positively on its retest. Its probe under the prior low was isolated to the proxy window, which was exited above the 2202.00 prior high. that’s all bullish enough to establish a low, which would be relevant if broken.
It was broken. But it wasn’t broken until coming to within 3 minutes of the cash session close. And that’s not often a relevant break. So, there is potential for rejecting the late dip, but only by gapping up above the afternoon’s 2208.00 high (forming a “session-long rally”). Otherwise, not rejecting Wednesday’s late break would likely trend down Thursday morning.
It’s the third consecutive session ending on the brink of rolling over. The anchor that formed during Wednesday’s open suggests any reaction down will be recovered. But not yet recovering at Thursday’s open would next target 2187.50 below.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Another brink.
Downtrending session trying to recover, or at least to hold.
This morning’s late no-bias had put into play an offsetting test of its 2199.75 bias-down signal. That was just tested as the afternoon bias environment began lapsing. And it was retested after entering the final hour.
Not entering the final hour in rally mode was vulnerable to extending the decline. Indeed, a fresh low did print. But the fresh low was isolated to the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. In fact, the window ended not only back above the prior low, but back above a prior high.
Now momentum is trying to reverse up, which would be confirmed above 2205.50 and 2207.00. Back under 2201.75 would be vulnerable to resuming the decline, or at least ending today’s session at a third consecutive brink — once again needing a gap up to marginalize sellers and avoid extending down to 2187.50.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trying to rally Tuesday night stopped short of the 1.0685 buy signal before reversing down through Wednesday morning. Filling the gap back down to last Wednesday’s 1.0560 close Wednesday morning could serve as the low’s retest if followed by a close back above 1.0655.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding tests of 1191.50 resistance through Tuesday night resolved down Wednesday back to prior lows, likely to extend to the 1166.00 objective where forming a durable bottom would be more credible.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Once again backing of from 16.70 resistance Wednesday held Tuesday’s 16.45 low to avoid probing fresh lows, which a bottoming pattern does not require.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s threat of reversing the series of lower lows and lower highs had required resolving down almost immediately to avoid recovering the 154-17 buy signal. Wednesday’s open did gap down, and extend back down to 151-16 prior lows. The decline has no bearish excuse not to extend down without further delay, unless a bottom is forming.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s retest of Sunday night’s low had required launching a recovery almost immediately. The overnight rally gapped up to trigger the 46.60 buy signal and extend sharply higher intraday. Prior highs were probed by attacking 50.00, still likely at least to touch 50.50.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Another narrowly ranging session held the 3.30 pullback limit to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength, including the 3.45-3.50 objective outstanding above. A knee-jerk reaction down would be attracted to 3.20 and 2.98 gaps outstanding below.
Mid-day Update… The attractions below.
Only one attraction above, but plenty below.
This morning’s bias environment did not probe the opening range’s high, but it probed the opening range’s low. And now the noon hour has probed the bias environment’s low. If the gap up were capable of forming a “session-long rally” setup, then it has inverted into a session-long decline. So, either this afternoon’s bias environment or the final 60-90 minutes is likely to probe lower, too.
A test of this morning’s 2199.75 bias-down signal was put into play for ultimately holding a test of the 2207.75 bias-up signal. It has become “unfinished business below.”
An offsetting test of the 2192.75 bias-down target was not triggered, but only because the 2213.25 bias-up target was missed by a single tick post-open. It had been probed pre-open.
Even threatening 2192.75 would suggest that 2187.50 will be retested, too.
Meanwhile, the open’s gap up above prior highs was maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility. It created an anchor that suggests the 2211.25 opening print will be retested, regardless of the interim dip.
The only other unfinished business above continues to be the 2220.00 objective put into play by recovering 2192.00 last week.If somehow tested prior to neutralizing attractions below, it would be vulnerable to reversing down sharply, as has been the case with each other attraction above.