Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap down extended sharply through the open to test 1.0725. So long as 108.30 holds as support, the next lower objective in-play is 1.0655.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness extended down intraday to 1211.00. Bouncing $7 into positive territory at 1231.00 then reacted back down to close in negative territory. The next lower objective is 1196.50, with some potential support at 1206.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday extended sharply lower through the morning to 16.62, is all the allowable room for noise on a retest of last months’ 17.11 overnight low. Any lower — especially through the close — would suggest a much deeper drop underway. It’s premature for a bottom to begin forming, but a steep temporary corrective bounce is possible.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dropping Sunday night more than 2-1/4 points to 152-24 was recovered almost entire before Monday’s open, but still gaped down to 154-00 and dipped less deeply intraday. The gap back up to Friday’s close held when another bounce filled it. It’s not premature for a bottom to begin forming, but it’s too soon for a recovery to begin.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s open gapped down and probed fresh lows to 42.20. Bouncing back up to unchanged and higher has created an opportunity to bottom. Any strength above 44.15-44.30 would be credible for reversing momentum up.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up and extending to 2.78 Monday stopped short of 2.80, which would actually signal momentum reversing up. Filling the gap back down to Friday’s 2.62 is now required before a durable bottom can form.
Mid-day Update… Getting our fill of backing-and-filling.
Trying again to recover from under Friday’s highs.
This morning’s late no-bias had put into play an offsetting test of the 2153.50 bias-down signal. It was attacked to within 3 ticks during the bias environment.
That didn’t neutralize its attraction, but it was enough to prevent becoming “unfinished business below.”
Its business was finished, anyway. Bouncing to 2161.00 ran into the resistance of Friday’s high. Reacting down during the noon hour touched 2152.25. Ultimately, 2153.50 held as support.
2153.50 is also this afternoon’s bias-down signal. It held its test to trigger no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2164.75 bias-up signal isn’t required. It was attacked to within almost 2 points, but Friday’s 2161.00-2162.00 highs once again resisted the recovery attempt.
Backing-and-filling this morning was possible, and could have recovered to and through the overnight high. This afternoon is still backing-and-filling, and could still launch a recovery. The alternative isn’t necessarily a downleg, but higher would be safer.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 15, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s pre-open Fed speaker is too early to influence intraday price action. But the comments of two afternoon Fed speakers could be very impactful — especially the latter.
John Williams Speaks
MON 6:30 PM ET
Eric Rosengren Speaks
7:30 AM ET
Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Stanley Fischer Speaks
1:30 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
3:00 AM ET (questionable)
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2168.25 | 2164.75 |
| …would target | 2175.25 | 2172.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2157.75 | 2153.50 |
| …would target | 2151.75 | 2148.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Toe pick.
Sticky close is undermining trending attempts.
The opening print was at this mornings 2165.50 bias-up signal. Price quickly slid to Friday’s 2161.50 and 2160.00 futures and cash session closes. That also tested Friday’s “lower prior highs,” which launched a bounce up to 2168.00 through the bias timing window. But the 2165.50 bias-up signal was overlapped within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period.
Late bias-down triggered at 10:30, instead of bias-up, despite the grace period having been triggered at the earliest possible moment during a surge higher. But the overnight surge was also rejected, so the bias signal’s weakness was not an anomaly. An offsetting test of the 2153.50 bias-down signal is in-play.
Overnight probing above Friday’s range was not isolated. So, backing-and-filling into Friday’s range can still resolve bullishly. The 2158.00 overnight low was just touched, finally probing post-open under unchanged, making a deeper probe likely.