Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… Back to the counting room.
Afternoon pullback could be done.
Rallying above yesterday’s highs before late-afternoon today was unlikely without gapping up. Rallying without gapping up is likely to reverse down. As of late-afternoon, rallying 13 points above yesterday’s 2130.00 high has been retraced entirely, to 2130.00.
The impatience should also have a punitive consequence that retraces back into negative territory. Back under 2131.75 would target 2127.75. It was this afternoon’s bias-down signal, but doesn’t require being tested. Its break would target 2121.25 and potentially 2113.50.
Back above 2136.25 could avoid any punitive damage, and would start to signal a retest of the 2143.25 high probably up to 2145.75.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Nov 9, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Apparently, exit polling IS influencing Tuesday’s intraday price action. Objective, or not, it can still be influential — not only to price action, but to those yet to vote. So, Tuesday evening results might prove either discounted, or wrong. Otherwise, the afternoon’s Fed speaker is Wednesday’s only other scheduled influential item.
U.S. Presidential Election results
TUE NIGHT
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2141.50 | 2137.50 |
| …would target | 2146.50 | 2142.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2131.75 | 2127.75 |
| …would target | 2125.25 | 2121.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP SIGNAL, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Choppy range.
Fresh pullback low holds yesterday’s range.
The 2122.50 immediately extended down to touch yesterday’s late 2119.25 low. Its reaction up to 2124.25 was retraced entirely. The next reaction up has extended to attack yesterday’s cash session close at 2126.50.
But meanwhile the 2123.50 bias-down signal triggered at 10:15. It triggered cleanly. Bouncing to touch it at 10:30 did not actually recover it, so it is not invalidated. One more opportunity to invalidate it would recover the 2132.50 bias-up signal at 11:30. But that’s unlikely since yesterday afternoon’s buyers didn’t gain traction, which wasn’t invalidated by the open gapping up.
None of which prevents filling the gap back up to yesterday’s 2129.00 futures close. Or actually testing the 2132.50 bias-up signal. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2122.75 and 2121.25 would trigger a drop to fresh session lows. The 2118.25 bias-down target’s test would likely be probed down to 2113.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Reacting back down to test 2123.50 hasn’t been retraced this time. Being this morning’s bias-down signal, not recovering it could extend down another 10 points. Similarly, holding its test would put into play an objective nearly 10 points above. The latter scenario would fulfill yesterday’s “session-long rally” influence by trending up the next morning, but this instance of the setup isn’t very reliable.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.