Posts by Rod David
The First Trade… Skeweeze.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s 2084.25 open was essentially flat with Thursday’s 2083.25 close, and soon probed Thursday’s late low under 2080.00 down to 2079.00. Bouncing into the noon hour to test 2094.00 didn’t prevent retracing it all into the weekend, the final weekend before this week’s U.S. Presidential elections.
Overnight action’s new info…
The FBI on/off effect was immediate. Both in terms of triggering a 26-point gap up to 2106.00, and in the overnight action only ranging around 2106.00. Choppily, down to 2103.00 and up to 2112.00. And now another attack on 2106.00 as support trying to bounce again.
If, then…
Room for noise under the decline’s 2082.00 target down to 2077.50 had been attacked to within 2 points. It does not become unfinished business below. But the gap back does, although it can be “filled” by proxy back down to Thursday-Friday’s 2094.00-2097.50 highs. Meanwhile, a corrective rally may be underway, especially so long as the opening 15 minutes of volatility gets out above 2108.75. The next set of “higher prior lows” begins at 2114.00, from which overnight action has hovered pessimistically short. The next higher set gets to 2120.00-2121.00, which is also a 61.8% retracement back to two-week old highs. Any higher would start targeting 2134.00 and 2138.00. After trending down into its close, gapping above the prior afternoon’s highs forms a “session-long rally,” but it’s intraday effects can be less reliable when there is a weekend in between.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] The open is too far removed from the Bias parameters for any early indications.
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
However skillful GOP candidate Trump may be at keeping the spotlight on him, he could still take a lesson from FBI Director Comey. He has just announced no change to his investigation’s previous conclusion not to recommend charges. His name is on everyone’s lips, as it was last Friday. Not for his magic ability to review 650,000 emails in a time frame far shorter than his own original projection.
Anyway, his about-face is likely to have the same effect on S&Ps, which slid 56 points in the interim. Combined with the 2077.50 target having been met to within 6 ticks at Friday’s lows, a sizeable bounce is all but assured. Other factors prevent it from being durable — like the gap back to Friday’s close which would be left outstanding.
So, is it over? Proximity to the election probably inhibits Clinton from dropping another October-like surprise, as it would distract attention from her being cleared. In her favor, Wikileaks needs to release video footage of a capital crime to move the dial any more. Few would be surprised they have it, but for now we’ll focus on tonight’s Globex session, which opens at 6:00pm ET. You can monitor it in the chaRTroom…
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
There being no Saturday Review this weekend, Friday’s Market Wrap was slightly extended to include the Bigger Picture review, along with its usual other markets coverage.
View the post-market Wrap recording here.
Sunday at 6:00pm ET, monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2090.50 | 2085.00 |
| …would target | 2096.25 | 2090.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2083.00 | 2077.50 |
| …would target | 2077.50 | 2072.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP RENEWED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s return into Wednesday’s range prevented forming an Island Reversal. Still hovering at Wednesday’s upper-end Friday may prevent reversing back under 1.1100 before extending up to 1.1195. But closing back under 1.1100 would still suggest the bounce had ended already.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow fluctuation Friday kept alive the potential for producing the minimum requirement for a third higher close before any deeper pullback.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s pullback low wasn’t retested or attacked Friday, despite initial weakness, suggesting that the attraction to a new relative high close remains intact and in-play.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s choppy open was again attracted back to 163-02, which again bounced to attack 163-27 resistance. A bigger bounce remains unlikely, although closing above 164-08 would suggest something more substantial to the upside is underway. Otherwise, back under 162-16 would likely trigger a break to fresh lows targeting 160-10.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The downleg that triggered under 50.80 got off to a slow and shallow start. Its decline contained a shallow consolidation. And it has extended to fulfill its 43.75 target. Already fulfilling the objective suggests that a corrective bounce will resolve in an even lower low, and probably not just hold a retest of 43.75.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s narrow range at recent lows doesn’t reject their break, but it maintains the potential for closing Monday above 2.88.to end the decline’s momentum or above 3.00 to reverse the trend back up.