Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2115.50 | 2109.50 |
| …would target | 2121.25 | 2115.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2106.50 | 2100.50 |
| …would target | 2100.75 | 2094.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Tuesday’s close qualified as a hold-long. But I wouldn’t tolerate much of a pullback. The short-squeeze from 2091.00 up to 2103.00 eventually extended up to 2108.00, putting into play 2111.25 and higher. The 2115.00 and 2121.25-2122.00 areas could be met, too, all within the context of a temporary correction.
Temporary. Not so much because Tuesday’s drop bounced from 9 points short of the decline’s likely 2082.00 target. More so because of simultaneously oversold RSIs at the 2091.00 low requiring a retest. And that retest would be very vulnerable to extending down to 2082.00 — or its room for noise down to 2077.50.
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting may have a bullish influence, just for getting the event and the hawkish wording of its statement behind us. It’s too soon to gauge what impact Friday’s Employment Situation report may have.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Last, but not least.
Corrective bounce may be complete.
The 2095.00 target’s break puts into play one more objective at 2082.00. It’s substantially lower, so it wasn’t likely to be met in one effort. In fact, support at 2091.00 was very influential, launching a bounce to 2103.00.
Breaking under 2098.00 would resume the decline. Breaking lower is likely since the bounce leg was the first reaction up from the previous trend’s extreme, and has corrected only 50%. Also, simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low require a retest.
Currently a bounce is attacking 2102.00. Its recovery could quickly become a wildfire of short-squeezing. Regardless, retesting today’s low and resuming the decline remains likely, whether or not done today.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s correction of the recently started rally was already resolving at Monday’s gap up. The 1.1100 target was attacked up to 1.1090, and remains in-play so long as pullbacks hold 1.1050.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up above the recent test of 1283.50 resistance to 1286.50 extended to 1292.00 and hovered. Above 1293.00 would next target 1304.50, but meanwhile recent “lower prior highs” down to 1275.00 all but require a retest before a credible recovery could begin.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already firming after Monday’s close at 17.80 resistance then rallied overnight to greet Tuesday’s open gapping up at 18.25, and then extended higher intraday to test 18.52. A pullback has room down to 18.05 before signaling at least a significant correction underway.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Room for bouncing up to 163-02 had not been fully utilized before reversing down overnight to attack recent lows to within 5-6 ticks at 161-26. Bouncing into the open allowed only a slightly lower gap down, which immediately reversed down to fresh lows at 161-22. An actual probe of fresh lows is likely before a credible bottoming attempt — which had better become obvious soon if Wednesday’s FOMC Minutes and Friday’s Employment Situation report will be greeted bullishly.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Two separate overnight probes under Monday’s low each bounced, the second one being accompanied by RSIs diverging positively. But a corrective bounce having room up to 47.50-47.70 was ignored as the decline extended down to 46.25, targeting 45.70 and potentially 43.75.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s doomed gap up had retraced already back into low’s consolidation, and extended down overnight to fulfill the 2.97 low’s retest. Extending down through the open tested and held the 2.87 extended target where a credible recovery could start forming.
Mid-day Update… Down and downer.
The downtrend persists.
Not recovering intraday above 2124.25-2125.00 resistance was likely to probe under Friday’s 2112.50 low.
The open didn’t have to actually be at resistance, but it was. And post-open action trended straight down.
The 2111.25 late bias-down target was attacked as the bias environment began lapsing. And it was met as the noon hour was entered. Having probed fresh trend lows, a bottom was free to begin forming.
Or, not.
The next lower target of 2105.00 was just attacked to within 3 ticks. It’s also this afternoon’s bias-down target, yet to be triggered, but it won’t become “unfinished business below” having attacked it to within 3 ticks. And RSIs have been making higher lows — higher oversold lows, but during the noon hour, which doesn’t require a retest.
Back above 2108.75 would start to signal momentum reversing up. The signal was just touched while testing the current bounce limit. If a recovery doesn’t catch, then the next lower targets are 2095.00 and 2082.00.