Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2131.25 | 2125.50 |
| …would target | 2137.50 | 2131.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2123.50 | 2117.75 |
| …would target | 2117.00 | 2111.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Hay, made it through the entire day without a single spooky Halloween reference! Oh, wait. Darn…
Still hovering at the morning’s low without rejecting it suggests at least an obligatory break lower is coming. Having hovered there for so long without yet breaking, more than just an obligatory break may require a shallow bounce, first.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Prone.
Firming off of support.
This morning’s 2120.00 low was retested by 1 point. But it is getting a little late to break out from the range. And final hour wasn’t entered any lower than the bias environment range, despite exiting the bias environment under the noon hour’s low.
So, corrective bounce potential up to 2124.25-2125.00 is in-play. A bounce is still likely to resolve down, although that lateness again makes it difficult. Stopping short of its bounce potential might be the only path down today.
This morning’s original low developed over 5-10 minutes, but its retest lasted 45 minutes — not much of a rejection. But still likely to resolve down after a bounce. And there’s really no bullish reason to retest the morning’s low, since its bounce was already productive. So, any bounce is likely only temporary, whether or not resolving down today.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Monday from Friday’s bounce hasn’t invalidated the upside momentum still having potential to 1.1100.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s open gapped down from Friday’s late surge and its post-close extension that had ultimately tested and held 1283.50. Narrow ranging intraday didn’t try resuming the rally, but also doesn’t make 1266.00 and 1252.50 likelier yet to be tested in reaction.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s price action hugged the 17.80 resistance whose recovery would start to signal a new upleg possibly forming.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming Monday back up to Friday’s 162-23 high still has potential for testing 163-02 before one more probe of fresh lows prior to this week’s Employment Situation report.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s drop to fresh lows extended down further Monday, now requiring bounces to hold 47.50-47.70 to maintain the decline’s momentum.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s failure to already recover 3.12 doomed to failure Monday morning’s probe above it. Gapping up to test 3.16 was reversed throughout the morning back into negative territory and into last week’s Symmetrical Triangle, testing 3.03. Fresh lows are likely before a rally would be credible.
Mid-day Update… More errands!
Dry cleaners morning seems to contagious.
This morning’s bias environment suddenly plunged from 2125.25 and tested 2120.00 several minutes later. 
That ended quickly, as the balance of the window firmed back up to 2125.25.
Then an interesting thing happened: The bias environment began lapsing by surging to fresh post-open highs. That ended quickly, too, retesting the morning’s “lower prior highs.”
Interesting. Productive sponsorship between timing windows is rarely overwhelmed. So, surging to fresh highs as the bias environment began lapsing should have extended. But it did not. Even knowing the likely resolution is down, and that fresh lows must precede any credible rally — something interesting was attempted.
I’ll have to dismiss it for now. Its inflection point was validated by immediately extending at least 5 ticks. But its 3-minute high never improved. And now another timing window’s entry has signaled a reversal down.
So, the noon hour’s probe down to 2123.50 is being retested by 1 point as the afternoon’s bias environment begins. It’s triggering “no-bias” without either bias signal having been tested. Trending out of the bias environment lapsing would be credible again. That late would be difficult for a rally today to reverse back down today, but no rally should be durable without first probing under Friday’s lows.