Posts by Rod David
Sunday night’s Globex… The world’s turn.
Only US markets were available for reaction to Friday’s FBI announcement. Soon, the rest of the world will have an opportunity to react — not only to the news, but also to the US markets reaction, which was very pessimistic. World markets will react before US markets to the weekend’s clarification of Friday’s news, which has been little, and to its spin, which has been much. Oh, and BOE’s Carney was rumored to be resigning, and now not, but that’s not very interesting. Charts will be available when Globex opens at 6:00pm ET.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/29/16) …
Friday’s news and the market’s reaction didn’t much change the pattern that was developing into Friday’s open. And the pattern at Friday’s close probably wasn’t much different than it would have been otherwise. At least, not in terms of possible resolutions. We discuss those possible resolutions, their likelihoods, and more, in this weekend’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
GOOGL, MSFT, WDC, AMZN, AAPL, NVDA, TXN, BAC
| 10/29/2016 09:31:56 David B: Good Morning 10/29/2016 09:32:08 Mark Glezer: gm 10/29/2016 09:59:42 Mark Glezer: how long an non-durable gap up can last – probably not too long since all recent gaps up were reversed to fresh lows? 10/29/2016 10:04:51 David B: On monday when you talked about an anchor, is this generally strong hands? 10/29/2016 10:08:26 Mark Glezer: 2.9% growth suggests that a rate hike is coming very soon & mkt does not like it even though it knows it’s coming 10/29/2016 10:16:18 Mark Glezer: we’ve been range bound in the past few weeks, do u think a durable break out is coming soon, perhaps induced by election’s volatility or not necessarily? 10/29/2016 10:17:46 Mark Glezer: === 10/29/2016 10:17:57 Mark Glezer: same for a break lower? 10/29/2016 10:19:23 David B: MSFT,WDC 10/29/2016 10:21:37 David B: can you do msft after 10/29/2016 10:22:10 David B: i’m seeing googl 10/29/2016 10:22:16 David B: chart 10/29/2016 10:22:31 David B: i’m seeing googl 10/29/2016 10:22:36 G: googl 10/29/2016 10:22:51 David B: yes 10/29/2016 10:29:51 David B: NVDA,TXN 10/29/2016 10:35:04 Mark Glezer: thx much 10/29/2016 10:35:18 David B: thanks |
Saturday Review Link
News affecting the US elections popped-up suddenly Friday. Was the reaction to it premature? We’ll discuss that (trying not to be too sophomoric), and identify any patterns that developed or resolved last week which may have affected the Bigger Picture outlook.
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2136.75 | 2131.00 |
| …would target | 2143.00 | 2137.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2123.00 | 2117.50 |
| …would target | 2116.75 | 2111.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday put the “FBI” in Fibonacci…
Bad news for Hillary Clinton triggered a 23-point afternoon plunge. Its origin was a little premature, enough so that its recovery could have trapped shorts for being weak-handed, and formed a durable bottom. Trending down relentlessly into the close would have been another form of weak-haned sponsorship, but that was avoided, too.
Instead, the plunge was retraced by 61.8% which also tested Wednesday and Thursday’s “higher prior lows.” Both are natural corrective limits prior to resuming the breakout, and producing new lows. Being the fourth consecutive lower close makes lower lows likelier than a recovery, and dooms to failure an immediate recovery attempt.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
We’ll review the bigger picture and any stock chart analysis requests during this weekend’s Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET. We skipped last week and will skip next week, so be sure to join us. Its link will be sent to you overnight.