Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2164.00 | 2157.50 |
| …would target | 2169.50 | 2163.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2154.75 | 2148.25 |
| …would target | 2147.75 | 2141.25 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not extending.
Open’s break not rejected, yet.
Not rallying quickly post-open and rejecting the overnight slide was likely to extend down. The open’s blip-up touched 2151.75 and reacted down to fresh lows at 2145.75. And then lower to 2144.50.
That fresh low created a new feature for buyers to reject. And as it would have been rejecting the overnight slide, rejecting the fresh low would be bullish.
So, how’s that going?
The bias signal’s grace period was avoided by 1 tick at 10:15. Then it avoided being invalidated by not decisively recovering the 2147.75 bias-down signal at 10:30. So, this is a bias-down environment by 1 tick at 10:15, and still overlapping 2147.75 at 10:30.
Not very convincing. But official.
There has yet to be a fresh low since 10:15. Exiting the bias environment above the open’s 2151.75 high could invalidate the bias-down. Otherwise, having then failed to reject fresh lows for an entire extra timing window, buyers could become marginalized for the day.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight drop testing this morning’s 2147.75 bias-down signal had bounced up to 2151.50. Its reaction down touched 2147.75 and bounced again. While this range can be tested again post-open, exiting the open above it would be bullish. But not already rallying out of the open would make the drop more vulnerable to extending down this morning. Extending the decline need not be obvious quickly or become very productive, but a credible rally should be very obvious much sooner rather than later.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Only a deeper stretch?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s gap up was its most promising moment, but not the only one. The bias-up target was then exceeded to renew the bias-up signal, but its next higher objective wasn’t met. A couple of blips-up probed fresh highs, but they stopped as quickly as they had started. Other than no trending back down, that wasn’t much reward for inverting the downside traction gained by Tuesday’s decline. It didn’t prevent the last hour’s reaction down from 2158.00 to 2152.00, and it didn’t leave any “unfinished business above.”
Overnight action’s new info…
Extending Wednesday’s late reaction down another point to test 2151.00 was recovered into Europe’s opens to attack 2156.00. But that soon peaked coming out of Europe’s opens, and it eventually reacted down with an even bigger drop testing this morning’s 2147.75 bias-down signal.
If, then…
The aggression of Wednesday’s late drop was relative to the session’s otherwise narrow range. Despite being steep and deep, the drop didn’t damage the intraday pattern of coiling and pent-up buying pressure. If anything, it fulfilled the template that had been warning a rubber band effect could be needed to stretch price down so that snapping back up could re-launch the rally. But stretching that rubber band so late made it difficult to attract new sponsorship. Still not snapping back up this morning would be likely to gap down, such as last night’s price action is now indicating. Which is still not bearish, and could be an even bigger rubber band stretch — unless gapping down were to maintain a break under Wednesday’s 2149.75 low.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2146.25 would be likely to trigger the 2147.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2150.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2164.00 | 2157.50 |
| …would target | 2169.50 | 2163.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2154.25 | 2147.75 |
| …would target | 2147.75 | 2141.25 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.