Posts by Rod David
Pre-close View… There for the taking.
Noon hour’s fresh highs not rejected. Or extended.
The open’s recovery to 2148.00 was corrected by 61.8% down to 2138.50, all during the morning’s bias environment. The noon hour was greeted back at 2148.00, and soon surged to fresh highs attacking 2153.00.
The 2149.00 bias-up signal triggered. Eked higher to touch 2154.00 after 1:20, which confirms the 2155.00 bias-up target is valid. Price fluctuating narrowly since then doesn’t affect the bias-up target’s requirement to be met.
But it might delay it.
The 3:10-3:20 proxy window just closed, and still no new upleg. Back under 2149.75 — being touched now — would trigger a dipper pullback this afternoon, but still be likely to resume the rally.
At least, more likely to resume the rally, than not.
Optimal for the recovery would have been to close yesterday back above 2143.50. Sub-optimal would have been to gap up this morning above 2149.00. Closing today above 2155.00-2156.00 would be preferable, too. Especially compared to closing back under 2149.00, which would suggest today’s bounce was only temporary, and not the pullback from Thursday’s high.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap down back under the 1.1265 sell signal proved that Monday’s ranging around the 1.1300 prior high had held. But a second consecutive lower close Wednesday is needed for confirmation.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday gapped down under a three-day consolidation that had ranged around 1341.50. Critical support at 1329.00 was tested by mid-morning, and still being tested through the afternoon. A second consecutive lower close Wednesday would confirm. Meanwhile, the break’s momentum requires bounces to hold 1332.00 as resistance.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday from Monday’s break under 19.75 was extended to 19.05 intraday, confirming that at least an eventual third lower close is now required. Bounces must meanwhile hold 19.35 to confirm momentum remains intact.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Tuesday above Monday’s 168-22 high avoided it being a false break. Its second consecutive higher close confirms the breakout, and now requires at least an eventual third higher close. The likely minimum objective is 170-02.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s gap down retraced Monday’s recovery of Friday’s plunge. Filling the gap back down to Friday’s 44.55 close does neutralize its attraction below, but it’s not a buy signal. Closing back above 45.00 would signal the rally is resuming. There’s otherwise risk in even the most bullish pattern for a detour to 42.25.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s flat-to-higher firming didn’t reject Monday’s bounce from Friday’s test of “lower prior highs.” But Tuesday’s firming was too shallow to confirm a reversal underway. Nevertheless, almost any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Sep 28, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday is attacked by a hoard of Fed speakers throughout the session, and afterward. The pre-open Durable Goods report is meanwhile high-profile and influential, and any reaction it generates tend to be duplicated by post-open reports — which could apply to the speakers.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM ET
*Neel Kashkari Speaks
8:45 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
10:15 AM ET
*EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:30 PM ET
Loretta Mester Speaks
4:35 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2156.50 | 2149.00 |
| …would target | 2162.50 | 2155.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2149.75 | 2142.25 |
| …would target | 2143.25 | 2135.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Groundwork.
Blip-down recovers from the abyss.
Pre-open action had continued sliding to test 2135.75. Post-open action — i.e. the first bar — spiked down from its 2137.25 open to pierce the overnight lows at 2132.75. No other bar probing under 2135.75 also probed a fresh low.
The probe of fresh lows was reversed back up to 2142.00. And that was extended up to 2148.25. Sellers didn’t gain traction.
Buyers didn’t gain traction, either. The 2146.00 bias-up signal was barely touched in time to invoke the grace period. But the no-bias signal held. Already having tested the 2137.00 bias-down signal, an offsetting test of it isn’t required. But just as 2146.00 is assumed to be the next hour’s upper-end, testing 2137.00 should define the range’s lower-end.
Until the bias environment is within view of lapsing, 10-15 minutes before 11:30. Then breaking either way would be likelier to extend in that direction.