Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s gap up to Thursdays 1.1300 high did probe slightly higher intraday to 1.1320, but essentially only ranged around 1.1300. Almost any initial weakness Tuesday would be credible for extending down into a new downleg.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Only slight overnight weakness into Monday’s open was easily absorbed. The attempt to break under 1341.50 support wasn’t necessarily rejected, but almost any credible downleg should be obvious by Tuesday morning.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday was recovered to test 19.75 as resistance, but the test held and its sell signal triggered. Recovering 19.85 without delay Tuesday morning would invalidate Monday’s break, and could marginalize sellers into next week. Otherwise, fresh lows would soon be in-play.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up only to Thursday and Friday’s highs still created an Ascending Triangle pattern targeting at least 168-22. The target’s test intraday creates a requirement either to close above it for a breakout, or to react down and continue forming a bottom.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having confirmed a breakout, Friday’s plunge to 44.25 opened a buying opportunity for that recovery. Monday’s gap up back above the 45.00 buy signal extended higher intraday to retrace all of Friday’s drop.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Ending last week with a pullback down to “lower prior highs” had both expended and satisfied enough selling pressure to enable a new upleg to being. Closing above 3.04 would confirm..
Mid-day Update… Still only temporary?
Probing lower, at a suspicious time.
Monday’s open did not recover 2149.00, which was also the bias-down target. But fresh lows did give a bounce its best chance, as knee-jerk sellers could only temporarily probe under overnight lows down to 2141.25. A bounce retested the opening high up to 2149.50.
That was too late to qualify as a recovery, which was probed by its reversal to fresh lows at 2140.00. And now that has been probed down to 2137.75 — 1 tick under the afternoon’s bias-down signal, during a no-bias environment.
So, once again, a bounce’s best chance is to have expended all available selling pressure. RSIs improved or diverged positively, at relevant support, when least likely to gain traction for the effort.
Having probed fresh session lows during the afternoon bias environment, exiting the bias environment back above a prior high like 2144.50-2145.00 could trigger a short-squeeze through the close. The decline otherwise maintains its momentum, which is very dangerous at this spot in the chart.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Sep 27, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: After more than a week of saturating the market with housing sector data, yet another report Tuesday has a chance to surprise .
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2155.50 | 2147.75 |
| …would target | 2160.75 | 2153.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2145.25 | 2138.75 |
| …would target | 2140.25 | 2132.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Sellers stalled.
Retest of overnight lows trying to hang on.
Immediately rallying out of the open would have been credible for extending higher through the morning. 
There was no confusing the opening price action with a rally.
The 2148.00 opening print blipped-up to touch the 2149.00 bias-down target. That reversed down sharply to attack the 2144.25 overnight low. And a brief consolidation there was resolved by new lows down to 2141.25.
Being the next lower objective, testing and holding 2143.50 had potential to expend the morning’s selling pressure. It did take a little while of ranging around it. But no probe under 2143.50 was confirmed, and now 2149.00 is being attacked at 10:15
Attacked, but not recovered. This is a renewed bias-down environment Its 2143.50 renewed target has been met. And 2149.00 may be recovered up to the 2155.00 bias-down signal.
Or, not The only predictive observation — still relevant to the pattern — is that the decline had an opportunity to further entrench itself but didn’t. Recovering positive territory is the only pattern that would signal a bottom having formed today.