Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Feb 1, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: It has become rarer through the years for the Employment Situation report to be released in a vacuum. But that has usually meant one and maybe two other reports following it. This Friday’s report is unusual for so many reports following it. Post-open, high-profile, reliably influential to price action, and three to be released simultaneously. Volatility should be unusually high for a Friday morning.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2709.00 | 2707.75 |
| …would target | 2715.75 | 2714.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2700.25 | 2699.25 |
| …would target | 2692.25 | 2691.25 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Split personalities.
Early sellers were also late. Early buyers are already rewarded.
The open was greeted by two setups. A bearish Globex-flip was opening back under the earlier Globex low after having probed above yesterday’s high. A
nd a Too-late Globex breakout had just begun probing under the earlier overnight range. Triggering or rejecting either would be likely to be very productive very quickly.
The Globex-flip maintained its open under the 2681.75 earlier Globex low, but never extended under yesterday’s 2674.25 last relative low to confirm. The Too-late Globex breakout was retraced back to the earlier range, but wasn’t resuming its earlier breakout. The setups eventual rejections reversed back up sharply to probe the 2695.00 bias-up target by more than 2 points.
The reversal’s pullback limit was violated, and the rally tried resuming before bothering to form any complexity or accumulative behavior. That recovery is often unreliable, and it has reacted down 6 points to 2692.00. There’s room down to 2689.50 or 2688.00 before suggesting an even bigger dip underway.
Back above 2697.00 (being tested now) would start to signal the rally has resumed. A second consecutive higher close today would confirm 2701.00 is in-play — which could be tested while confirming, which would then suggest 2756.00 is also in-play. No second consecutive higher close, especially if 2701.00 were visited in the interim, could already reverse momentum down.
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Staying high, and dry.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday had been likely to probe above Tuesday morning’s 2650.00 high, but probably only to 2653.00. That essentially inverted when the open was greeted above 2653.00. Its reaction down to 2647.00 support recovered into a 20-point rally into the noon hour. Defensive posturing ahead of the FOMC’s policy statement had pulled back to 2655.00, better enabling the news reaction to surge 29 points to 2684.00. The Fed Chair’s Q&A extended that to attack 2690.00, which was finally enough. The final hour dipped to 2674.25 and ranged narrowly into the close, perhaps inhibited ahead of MSFT and FB post-close earnings.
Overnight action’s new info…
Similar to AAPL after Tuesday’s close, reacting favorably to MSFT and FB post-close earnings beats enabled futures to greet the Globex open testing 2683.00. Gradually improving from there back to yesterday’s highs eventually probed higher to attack 2692.00 before midnight. Flat-to-lower ranging since then has drifted back down to attack 2681.00, which the earlier Globex low had done already.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
CORRECTION: My early departure on Friday has been delayed by one week. This week will finish out normally… Closing above 2666.00 from under 2656.00. puts into play 2701.00 (subject to a second consecutive higher confirming close Thursday, which could already fulfill 2701.00). Or, not. Having closed above 2666.00, gapping down under 2656.00 Thursday would reject Wednesday’s upside momentum. Gapping down isn’t currently indicated, but only closing back under 2656.00 would still qualify if combined with another reversal setup — like a Globex-flip setup that would form by maintaining an open under the earlier Globex low after having probed yesterday’s highs overnight. Any downleg would be compared against the 1-1/2 week-long Ascending Triangle that tried breaking out yesterday.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2690.50 would be likely to trigger the 2687.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2680.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2688.25 | 2687.00 |
| …would target | 2696.25 | 2695.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2674.75 | 2673.25 |
| …would target | 2668.25 | 2666.75 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.