Posts by Rod David
Post-open Review… Really restrained optimism.
Post-open efforts absorbed by another downdraft.
The overnight recovery to 2142.00 had held up into the open, giving little excuse to delay retesting yesterday morning’s high around 2147.00. There being room to 2137.50 before suggesting that momentum is reversing down, a post-open dip under 2139.00 would be a compelling long-entry. In fact, a post-open dip touched 2137.50, and recovered to a fresh high at 2143.50.
But that STILL couldn’t trigger the 2140.50 bias-up signal. Although 2140.50 was attacked to within 1 tick at both times, no-bias was triggered at 10:15, and wasn’t recovered at 10:30. An offsetting test of the 2128.25 bias-down signal is in-play.
Having said that, any credible reversal down should have been obvious early. It wasn’t. Instead, the overnight high was probed immediately, and a reaction down was recovered to fresh highs. Only then did price drop. Dropping to 2134.50 was still in positive territory, and its bounce limit was just violated.
After barely triggering no-bias.
So, buy signals will be considered, regardless of the unfinished business below at 2128.25. Back above 2139.25 would put into play fresh session highs, and a retest of yesterday’s highs, and higher. Meanwhile, back under 2135.25 would still target 2128.25.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The overnight recovery to 2142.00 is holding up into the open, and little excuse to delay retesting yesterday morning’s high around 2147.00. For starters. Still, a post-open dip under 2139.00 would be a compelling long-entry. There’s room to probe under 2137.50 would suggesting that momentum is reversing down. And that’s even less likely if a dip is delayed until after the open has held up above 2139.00. Any credible reversal down would likely be obvious early.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Taking another shot.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Monday’s gap up at 2139.00 extended quickly to attack 2147.00, consolidating around 2143.00 into the noon hour. A sudden 8-point plunge was followed by an 8-point slide back into Friday’s range at 2128.00 for the afternoon low. Bouncing back to the 2139.00 open was reversed back down to 2130.00, preventing 2134.00 from being recovered through the close. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at 2146.75.
Overnight action’s new info…
Initially choppy, price gradually firmed to greet Europe’s opens back at Monday afternoon’s 2139.00 high. Consolidating there has broken higher to touch 2142.00.
If, then…
Despite falling short of it yesterday, a more substantial correction of Monday’s noon hour plunge up to 2141.50 had been likely. The overnight bounce has neutralized its test. So long as Tuesday’s open isn’t already reversing the overnight rally, then a retest of Monday morning’s overbought RSIs at 2146.75 is also likely. And that would have potential for extending to test last Monday’s upper-end around 2150.50. Opening flat-to-lower would be unlikely to resume the overnight rally, but not any more likely to reverse down sharply. Trending beyond the week-old range is still unlikely with BOJ and Fed statements looming.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2143.00 would be likely to trigger the 2140.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2137.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2147.75 | 2140.50 |
| …would target | 2153.00 | 2146.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2135.25 | 2128.25 |
| …would target | 2129.25 | 2122.00 |
| Signal status:LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
It’s difficult to trend in either direction beyond last week’s range, when BOJ and Fed statements are looming. That doesn’t preclude there being trending attempts. And Monday morning’s attempt to extend its 2139.00 gap up had potential to test last Monday’s upper-end around 2150.50. But it peaked short of 2147.00 before falling back into Friday’s range at 2128.00.
Another probe above 2134.00 was prevented — probing above it by 13 points and back under it by 6 points back under it, closing within 1-2 points of it, and essentially unchanged on the day. So long as Tuesday’s open isn’t already breaking down sharply, a more substantial correction of Monday’s noon hour plunge up to 2141.50 is likely, as is a retest of the morning’s overbought RSIs at 2146.75.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.