Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 9/17/16) …
Last week’s marathon session probably scared away a lot of participation this week. Meanwhile, this week’s presentation was relatively brief, as there was no change to the bigger picture. It remains distributive, and the week’s back-and-forth revealed only a few attractions the market might visit before resolving. But the bigger picture’s likely resolution remains down. So, there weren’t many questions or stock requests, and the otherwise brief overview serves as a refresher of how the market got to this stage, and its possible paths going forward.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BAC, GDXJ, AAPL
09/17/2016 09:31:07 Mark Glezer: gm
09/17/2016 09:41:29 Mark Glezer: could be another substantial bounce from lower prior highs?
09/17/2016 09:54:49 Mark Glezer: yes
09/17/2016 10:00:26 Mark Glezer: so NDX is still leading ES whether it’s up or down?
09/17/2016 10:03:33 Bill G: So much of ndx can just be appl
09/17/2016 10:05:18 Mark Glezer: if u were to project a bigger move for the week ahead – do u think it’s likely to happen Wed or Fri?
09/17/2016 10:05:54 Mark Glezer: choice maybe
09/17/2016 10:07:13 Mark Glezer: yep
09/17/2016 10:07:18 Mark Glezer: BAC
09/17/2016 10:09:12 Mark Glezer: AAPL
09/17/2016 10:14:52 Mark Glezer: thx much
09/17/2016 10:15:45 Bill G: thx
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2143.50 | 2136.00 |
| …would target | 2148.75 | 2141.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2131.50 | 2124.25 |
| …would target | 2125.50 | 2118.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday afternoon’s dip to its 2124.25 bias-down signal was probed down to 2123.00. RSIs were borderline oversold,. That held a test of the morning’s low, as much as it chipped away at its support. Its reaction up momentarily probed fresh session highs and touched 2134.00. Which held as resistance, after having gapped down under it. So, the distributive signal remains intact, distributive action persists, resistance held when it had an opportunity to recover, and any unfinished business is below.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
I’ll send a link overnight to the Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Chipping away at the 1.1225 sell signal was finally exploited Friday, and with a vengeance, as the opens’ gap down to 1.1225 extended sharply lower intraday to test 1.1150. A second consecutive lower close Monday would then require at least an eventual third lower close.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s bounce from testing 1212.00 support was retraced into Friday’s open, and eked lower during the day to eventually attack 1309.00. The 1296.00-1297.00 target is in-play.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Initially holding the multi-session range Friday morning eventually probed fresh relative lows, needing a second consecutive lower close Monday to confirm the prior low’s retest is likely underway.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having held a retest of Tuesday’s low Thursday, the overnight probe above the 165-20 bounce limit was maintained through Friday morning. Its recovery through the close signals a bottom having formed and probably also momentum reversing up, still needing confirmation from a second consecutive higher close.
Crude Oil Oct Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s attempt at forming a Pivot Reversal still needed Friday’s open to gap up, which it did not, which essentially confirmed the outstanding gap and fresh lows down to 42.25 remains in-play — which Friday’s fresh lows have now attacked to within 50 cents.
Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s initial weakness was recovered to probe back above Thursday’s high, itself being the recovery of initially dipping ahead of the EIA report. A second consecutive higher close isn’t so much a buy signal at this stage of the pattern, as it is confirmation the uptrend targeting 3.04 remains intact. But it is also a breakout of the recent range.