Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2144.00 | 2136.00 |
| …would target | 2149.25 | 2141.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2135.75 | 2127.75 |
| …would target | 2127.75 | 2119.75 |
| Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS-UP SIGNAL, BIAS-UP TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Retesting resistance already?
Counter-trend bounce.
The overnight test and retest of 2100.25 had recovered up to 2114.00 pre-open. The opening print was essentially the 2110.75 bias-down target. And post-open action was only optimistic.
The initial surge barely hesitated until filling the gap back to Friday’s 2120.50 cash session close. Its reaction down to 2115.00 was recovered to test the 2124.75 bias-up signal. But bias-up was attacked only to within 1 tick instead of invoking the grace period.
The 2124.75 bias-up signal was probed AFTER triggering no-bias. IMMEDIATELY afterward. Too late to trigger or to invoke the grace period. But maintaining its recovery through 10:30 invalidated the no-bias. So, probing the bias-up signal this morning isn’t no-bias trending.
2129.50 was touched. Its 1-min RS diverged negatively and now 3-min RSI is leaving overbought territory. Back under 2123.25 would signal momentum reversing down. Extending higher would be unlikely to exceed 2134.00 through a relevant timing window — but that doesn’t preclude probing above it temporarily.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Still no probe under the 2100.25 low that had printed overnight in sympathy with Asia’s opens — only its retest. That’s a optimism, which is bullish bearish from a contrarian perspective. So is the upleg underway from the Double Bottom, now testing 2114.00.
Recovering 2116.00-2116.50 through the open would make the 2117.50 bias-down signal much less likely to trigger at 10:15. Touching 2116.00-2116.50 and reversing back under 2111.50 would signal momentum reversing down. Back under 2109.00 at any time would signal the decline had resumed.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Brief respite.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open gapped down 16 points to 2157.00, and doubled that into the noon hour’s test of 2140.00. Often, such a Friday morning slide would produce a flat-to-higher afternoon. But the selling resumed more aggressively. The cash session close equated to 2120.50, but futures extended down to 2115.50 and 2113.25. August’s 2134.00 prior low was broken on the way down to prices last seen two months earlier in July.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open blipped up momentarily from Friday’s futures close to touch 2117.00, but that was still 3 points under Friday’s cash session close. The drop soon extended down to 2109.00 to await Asia’s opens, which triggered another drop to fresh lows at 2100.25. Bouncing 8 points was retraced entirely through Europe’s opens. Overnight lows are still being attacked.
If, then…
Gapping down is currently indicated above June’s “lower prior highs” (discussed during this weekend’s Saturday Review). Barely. Its representative price can be reduced to 2095.00-2100.00. Gapping down under it is made a little likelier today because Friday’s open gapped under its lower prior high. Regardless of the opening print, recovering through the open from having probed under it could help to launch a morning bounce.Not reacting to lower prior highs could enable today’s drop to make Friday’s drop seem relatively puny. As a reminder, just closing under 2134.00 would confirm a trend change, requiring at least an eventual third lower close. Lon-entries today should be considered only for brief exposure.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2109.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering the 2110.75 bias-down target through 10:15. The renewed bias-down target would be 2102.00.
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2133.00 | 2124.75 |
| …would target | 2138.50 | 2130.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2126.00 | 2117.50 |
| …would target | 2119.00 | 2110.75 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS AND BIAS-DOWN TARGET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.