Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Over, and also out.
REMINDER: I’M AWAY THIS AFTERNOON. SCROLL DOWN FOR DETAILS.
Breaking under this morning’s 2164.50 bias-down signal AFTER the 10:30 was too late to trigger. And it was too early to be “no-bias trending” But it did invalidate the no-bias. And for good reason, as a plunge probed fresh lows — including last Friday’s low — down to 2154.75, neutralizing yesterday’s “unfinished business below” at 2156.50.
A credible extended decline needed to be underway through yesterday’s close, or else already probing lower at this morning’s open. Neither being the case did not preclude attempting it, only succeeding at it.
The attempt has been recovered up to 2168.00. This afternoon’s 2164.50 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2170.75 target is in-play. It could be probed as noise up to 2174.25, which is the most I’m expecting. Between the momentum following this morning’s slingshot, and the anxiousness ahead of tomorrow’s Employment Situation report — and three days of illiquidity fast approaching — strong-handed sponsorship isn’t likely to appear.
Meanwhile, I’ll be away from screens this afternoon from 2:00 pm ET. There will be no further blog update after Daily Spot, and no post-market Wrap or recording. I’ll update the blog again later tonight… Tomorrow morning will operate as normal, and then I’ll be gone through the afternoon.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Sep 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is among the most reliable for influencing price action. Its reaction is likely to be duplicated by subsqequent reports, of which there is an unusual amount to be accompanying Payrolls. The noon hour’s Fed speaker should keep volatility active into the afternoon, if not also the weekend.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
*Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
1:00 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2166.00 | 2164.50 |
| …would target | 2172.25 | 2170.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2157.25 | 2155.75 |
| …would target | 2150.50 | 2149.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Late to party.
Bias-down invalidated.
The overnight extension higher was only retraced before the open. It may as well have been rejected by reversing into negative territory. 
Not gapping up from yesterday’s setup meant not rallying. Not credibly, not sharply, not durably.
The flat open at 2168.25 reacted up 4 points immediately, triggering a buy signal that peaked within its first 3 minutes at 2172.25. Reversing down through a sell signal under 2169.00 quickly fulfilled its 2166.00 target. The 2164.50 bias-down signal was attacked to within 1 tick, an errant tick’s knee-jerk reaction to news.
No-bias triggered. That’s all the morning was required to do — fluctuate within its range for noise.
When it had become too late to invoke a grace period, another sell signal was triggered under 2166.00. The 2164.50 bias-down signal was broken through 10:30 to invalidate the no-bias. That break was pretty productive, plunging into a sudden bottom at the 2156.50 “unfinished business below.”
Plunging AFTER 10:30 would have been “no-bias trending” which would require recovering. So, this drop can extend, and its next lower objective would be 2141.50. But that’s unlikely. The opportunity to extend was yesterday, and that opportunity was flubbed. Still, oversold RSIs are undermining the current 3-point bounce from testing 2156.50.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Ruh-roh. Extending yesterday afternoon’s recovery ran into resistance at 2177.00. Its reaction has backed down to almost unchanged 2169.50. That’s not a gap up, which resuming yesterday’s recovery would require. Trying to rally could be doomed to failure. Declining through the morning would now be credible.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.