Posts by Rod David
Mid-day Update… Creeping down.
Sitting at support.
Yesterday afternoon’s pullback objective was 2171.50. The effort stopped short before the close, and took awhile restarting this morning. But 2171.50 was touched at this morning’s low.
And has since held.
The noon hour bounced to 2176.00 and the bias environment is within 1 tick of 2171.50. Being no-bias, the 2107.75 bias-down signal should define the low if tested… until the bias environment begins lapsing.
Breaking lower as the bias environment lapsing comes into view would essentially target a retest of Friday’s 2157.50 low. Breaking lower prematurely should at least tag-up with the bias-down signal before extending. That tag-up could recover, instead.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Aug 31, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s pre-open Fed speaker is too early to be very influential to price action. But the ADP report is high-profile, coming just ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report. Any reaction to the post-open PMI when released privately to institutional subscribers will likely be duplicated upon public release. Reaction to the late-afternoon Fed speaker will be interpreting based on Tuesday reaction to a similar time slot.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Neel Kashkari Speaks
8:00 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
*Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
3:15 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2180.00 | 2178.50 |
| …would target | 2185.00 | 2183.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2172.25 | 2170.75 |
| …would target | 2167.50 | 2166.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Late start.
Delayed resumption of yesterday’s late reaction down.
The third consecutive narrow overnight range once again broke sharply at the open. But this time, not until the open. And the opening break was reversed. Actually, today’s opening break up to 2181.50 was retraced back to the 2178.00 open, which held through the half-hour.
Finally breaking lower still had not touched the 2174.25 bias-down signal until the very end of the 3-minute window either way around 10:15. Having invoked the grace period, 2174.25 was still being touched at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.
So, the bias-down target is not in-play, and neither is an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. The 2179.75-2171.50 objective of yesterday’s late-reaction down from 2182.00 has been pierced.
Since the break is not “no-bias trending” that would require a recovery, this morning’s dip can become something more substantial. With tomorrow being peak liquidity ahead of a three-day holiday weekend, any near-term trending must be underway before then — which makes a break under Friday’s lows possible today or tomorrow.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The narrow overnight range persisted to greet the open, the third consecutive such range, albeit biased slightly downward. There is no requirement to resume Monday’s rally that had begun at late Friday afternoon’s test of support. But its eventual reversal isn’t required to begin this morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.