Posts by Rod David
Afternoon Bias
| TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2191.75 | 2189.50 |
| …would target | 2196.50 | 2194.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2185.50 | 2183.50 |
| …would target | 2179.25 | 2177.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Made it. Now, break it?
New highs fulfilled. Not yet extended.
The open gapped up into last Monday’s range above its 2187.00 cash session close, and extended higher to touch the 2190.00 bias-up target. A lot of time was spent probing higher to 2191.50, above last Monday’s high as was required.
Printing above 2190.00 at 10:15 officially renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2194.50. Technically, the renewed signal is not optimal, since 2190.00 had been overlapped for so long, while RSIs deteriorated. But the burden of proof is on sellers.
Maintaining the gap up above all prior highs often creates an anchor that prevents launching a durable reversal. Today’s anchor is less reliable since it formed within a prior session’s range. Still, the burden of proof is on sellers, and reversing down under 2188.75 could recover aggressively from 2185.00-2186.00 this morning.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The earlier blip-up to 2188.00 had reacted down almost 3 points. But recovering back up to it is now spiking up through it. Noise around the 2190.00 bias-up target comes in at 2189.50, and reacting down from it would be vulnerable to avoiding the bias-up signal altogether — which would be very bearish near-term. Otherwise, maintaining the gap up would allow probing higher this morning.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Make, or break. Or, both.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
The week began with a largely “inside day” contained within Friday’s range (the lone exception being the noon hour’s momentary 2183.50 high, if not counting the 2184.50 overnight high). A remarkable 6-7 intraday swings alternated between up and down, an orderly fashion usually reserved to trending action. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the 2175.00 late-morning low. The morning’s 2185.00 bias objective was left outstanding above..
Overnight action’s new info…
Flat-to-higher narrow ranging drifted narrowly into and out of Europe’s opens, and through Monday’s 2183.50 high. Surging an hour later touched 2187.25. Its 3-point reaction down was recovered entirely, briefly extending up to 2188.00.
If, then…
Having gained no traction yesterday, trending this morning requires gapping open beyond yesterday’s range. Overnight action indicates as much, at least at this moment. But overnight action is also hesitating upon filling the gap back up to last Monday’s 2187.00 close. Yesterday’s highs formed upon filling the gap back up to Friday’s close, which illustrates the difficulty in testing resistance intraday. Gapping up to and through 2187.00 would be more reliable for extending higher post-open. The minimum reward would be new highs, at least momentarily. Perhaps at most momentarily, as new highs would be vulnerable to reversing back down aggressively.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2187.00 would be likely to trigger the 2185.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2182.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2187.25 | 2185.00 |
| …would target | 2192.25 | 2190.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2179.25 | 2177.00 |
| …would target | 2174.25 | 2172.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.