Posts by Rod David
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: This week’s econ calendar is much busier than last week’s, much higher profile, and much more capable of influencing price action. Tuesday’s pre-open report is a good example, and any price reaction to it is likely to be duplicated by post-open items. Meanwhile, the otherwise noisy noon hour will be faced with absorbing a Fed speaker.
*Consumer Price Index
8:30 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2194.50 | 2191.50 |
| …would target | 2199.25 | 2196.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2186.25 | 2183.25 |
| …would target | 2180.00 | 2177.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Game on, or already over?
Gap up extends, already meets target.
The 2184.75 opening print was not above prior intraday highs. Maintaining it through the open does not create an anchor that 
would enable recovery, even if only to retest the open. Remember that.
Meanwhile, the gap up did exceed 2185.50 through 9:45. That made the 2184.00 bias-up signal likely to trigger at 10:15. Which it did. A test of the 2189.50 bias-up target is in-play. Oh, wait, it’s already met.
Reversing down would now leave no unfinished business above. That includes the open’s gap, which was not above all prior highs. I’ve been sharing the recent observation upside objectives are being fulfilled more and more quickly, What had taken weeks began taking days, and then timing windows. Today’s is a recent record.
Durable rallies “climb a wall of worry” thanks to strong-handed sponsorship. Weak-handed sponsorship aren’t so reliable. Like junkies, they require faster and faster gratification to keep them coming back.
2189.50 is still being overlapped, so not yet exceeded. The next higher attraction would be 2191.50. Back under 2186.75 would suggest upside momentum is lapsing. Back under 2184.50 would signal the trend reversing down.
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The 2185.75 overnight high has been touched again. It doesn’t require intraday retest, but retesting it and reversing down could start sliding aggressively. Otherwise, the rally more likely goes back on autopilot.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Flat-to-higher.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s open didn’t gap up, making fresh session highs unlikely, since Thursday had not gained traction for its effort. Sellers didn’t exploit the weakness much beyond remaining under pressure into the afternoon. Ultimately, it was an “inside day” on a Friday, without wide-ranging extremes, and no unfinished business was created..
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night opened flat with Friday’s 2180.00 close and gradually firmed to attack Friday morning’s 2183.00 high. It had been probed by another point well before Europe’s opens, which suddenly got volatile. A blip-down to 2182.00 had been recovered one hour later to pierce last week’s high by 2 ticks up to 2185.75. Rather than extend, that has reacted back down to 2183.00.
If, then…
Thursday’s probe above prior highs to 2185.25 had indicated it was unlikely to extend Friday, because its close was back under the 2183.50 prior highs. That indication was influential but it hasn’t yet been productive — Thursday’s probe didn’t extend Friday, but it hasn’t reversed the trend back down. Not, yet. Not ever if the overnight probe back above both 2183.50 and 2185.25 isn’t rejected this morning. There’s only several ticks above of room for noise, and maybe only several minutes to set a tone for today — either resuming Friday’s break lower, or continue gravitating higher.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2185.50would be likely to trigger the 2184.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2180.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.