Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
Recovering 7 points back up to the 2179.00 overnight high has since hovered patiently while awaiting the open. A valid breakout in this pattern should almost literally explode higher post-open, making early-entry a little more compelling. Maintaining a recovery above yesterday’s highs through this morning’s open would make this morning likely to probe fresh highs, such as unfinished business above at 2185.50. But NOT yet exploiting the opportunity to trend up would instead become likelier to repeat yesterday morning’s drop — perhaps less aggressively and more backing-and-filling, but a drop.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Can’t keep it down.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Wednesday gapped up several points to 2179.00, stopping pessimistically short of the overnight high, as did two pre-open bounces. Post-open action immediately dropped, more pessimism, but holding up above its bias-down trigger. Price trended down anyway until the afternoon bias environment’s 2168.00 exit. But even that didn’t gain traction, as probing under “unfinished business below” at 2171.00 was recovered to hold as support through the close
Overnight action’s new info…
A quick pullback at the Globex open touched 2170.00, and then rallied back up to Wednesday’s 2179.00 opening print. Europe’s opens triggered a very quick drop that attacked 2172.00, but that has been retraced already back up to the 2179.00 high.
If, then…
Almost an entire day of selling pressure Wednesday ended without sellers gaining traction, and with an attraction below having been neutralized. That’s not very productive selling. No consequences were delivered intraday, but gapping up to and or through yesterday’s high would suggest they’re coming today. Not already trending down at Thursday’s open makes another high likely, and likely to test the unfinished business above at 2185.50 — which is suddenly much closer than it was at yesterday’s close. Meanwhile, a topping pattern continues to develop, so beware of an opening print that isn’t maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2178.50 would be likely tot trigger the 2176.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2173.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Wednesday trended down the 2179.00 open’s gap up to the afternoon bias environment’s 2168.00 exit.
Although not required to extend down deeper Thursday, it’s possible. Unfinished business below at 2171.00 was neutralized and held as support through the close, a not-so-nearby objective outstanding below is 2160.00. And although not required to recover, let alone to recover first, an equidistant not-so-nearby objective outstanding above is 2185.50.
Meanwhile, a topping pattern continues to develop. Not already trending down at Thursday’s open would make another high likely. Already trending down at Thursday’s open could be starting the next downleg.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2180.75 | 2176.75 |
| …would target | 2186.00 | 2182.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2172.75 | 2169.00 |
| …would target | 2167.00 | 2163.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday to test 1.1205 was not extended higher, and its consolidation was supported by 1.1180 whose break would signal momentum reversing down.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday to 1363.50 was unable to overcome the attraction to “unfinished business below” to at least retest Tuesday’s opening gap down, so the morning trended back down to 1348.50. The reaction down remains intact so long as bounces hold 1353.00 as resistance.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap up to test 20.50 was reversed back down to 20.15. Extending back under 20.05 would signal the gap back down to Tuesday’s 19.63 open is in-play .
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s recovery up to 172-26 resistance extended immediately Wednesday through its 173-04 confirmation on the way to attacking 174-00. The 176-10 objective is in-play.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Re-touching 43.35 resistance Wednesday morning was reversed back down to a fresh relative low testing 42.00 as support. Closing any lower would resume the decline targeting fresh lows at 36.60.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline didn’t slow Wednesday, quickly breaking under last month’s 2.60 low and extending down another nickel. Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength, so an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up would be likely to fail.