Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/6/16) …
It’s a learning session. It’s a forecast. It’s a learning session that’s also a forecast. It’s two Saturday Reviews in one!
This week’s session looks back at several setups that helped to identify how market moves would resolve. Many of those same setups are either repeating, or have further resolution, which then help us to identify how the current situation is likely to resolve… and the consequences to a less likely resolution.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AMZN, X, XOM, POT, PAAS, BAC, C, CYH, SSYS, GDXJ, IONS, TRTC, VEEV
08/06/2016 09:26:59 Casjf: gm
08/06/2016 09:31:30 Mark Glezer: gm
08/06/2016 09:31:38 Casjf: yes
08/06/2016 09:32:44 David b: good morning
08/06/2016 10:12:33 David b: AMZN,X
08/06/2016 10:13:38 David b: BAC,C
08/06/2016 10:13:52 Casjf: XON
08/06/2016 10:15:51 MK: POT
08/06/2016 10:16:06 MK: PAAS
08/06/2016 10:16:56 MK: CYH
08/06/2016 10:20:06 MK: SSYS
08/06/2016 10:21:34 Casjf: yes
08/06/2016 10:23:41 MK: VEEV (Short)
08/06/2016 10:27:22 MK: can’t bring myself to buy POT
08/06/2016 10:27:26 MK: but i really want to
08/06/2016 10:27:41 MK: haha also remember where i live
08/06/2016 10:27:43 MK: not a problem
08/06/2016 10:27:44 MK: =)
08/06/2016 10:28:50 Casjf: IONS, TRTC
08/06/2016 10:29:16 MK: I sold my PAAS long yesterday
08/06/2016 10:30:26 MK: what about pullback?
08/06/2016 10:30:32 MK: 17.70?
08/06/2016 10:30:54 MK: oh wow
08/06/2016 10:30:55 MK: ok
08/06/2016 10:34:26 Mark Glezer: can BAC eventually recover to 30s?
08/06/2016 10:36:37 Mark Glezer: k
08/06/2016 10:37:23 MK: bunch of smart people long this stock
08/06/2016 10:37:33 MK: since 2016
08/06/2016 10:39:31 MK: basically during 1Q
08/06/2016 11:00:23 Mark Glezer: thx
08/06/2016 11:00:33 Casjf: Ty!
08/06/2016 11:00:35 David b: thanks
08/06/2016 11:01:02 charlie: tks
Saturday Review Link
A new trend high close on a Friday! There are specific consequences to that. We’ll discuss them, and more, at this weekend’s Saturday Review. Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2184.75 | 2180.00 |
| …would target | 2190.00 | 2185.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2175.50 | 2171.00 |
| …would target | 2169.25 | 2164.50 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Friday morning’s gap up did everything needed to suggest it was headed higher. Everything, meaning nothing. Simply maintaining a gap up above all prior highs through the open tends to marginalize sellers for the morning. Actually, Friday’s gap up also extended higher during the opening 15 minutes of volatility, which was helpful confirmation, but not necessary.
Friday afternoon did nothing, too. But its only predictive value is in it being a new trend high close. On Fridays, that requires eventually there to produce another new trend high close. Not necessarily immediately, but eventually. So, an interim pullback is possible.
An interim pullback is also likely. One reason is the multi-week range that is likely to abruptly reject probes above it. A second reason is that Friday’s high satisfied the only outstanding attraction above by retesting last Sunday’s Globex trend extreme. Which informs the third reason for probably not extending higher Monday — since that highest outstanding objective was only neutralized, but held as resistance through the close.
Or, not. We’ll discuss the potential upside, whether momentary or extended, at this weekend’s Saturday Review. Join us at 9:30 am ET, its link will be emailed overnight.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Pre-close View… Hold out.
Backing-and-filling is done. Is rallying resuming?
The noon hour’s touch of this afternoon’s 2178.00 bias-up signal held. Lacking a fresh high, the door opened to a deeper pullback. No one stepped through.
Backing-and-filling into the the bias environment’s exit touched only 2175.00. Another 2-3 ticks lower would have extended the drop another 2-3 points, and possibly lower.
Instead, a surge just touched a fresh high at 2178.50.
The surge began during the 3:10-3:20 timing window. It had reacted back down into the range by 3:20, so there’s no assurance that any new sponsorship will arrive before the close. Regardless, the burden of proof is on sellers,
If sellers don’t arrive soon, then this will be a new trend high close on a Friday. And that would require there being at least an eventual higher close.