Posts by Rod David
Pre-market Tour (recording & summary)
The Employment Situation report was greeted at 2162.00. A blip-down spiked back up to fresh highs at 2167.50. Its 4-point reaction down was recovered as quickly, to test 2168.00. And that’s essentially where the open is being greeted, gapping up above yesterday’s highs, which would be bullish if maintained through the open.
Extending higher at all today would likely extend a lot higher, as the market becomes comfortable that rate hike odds are factored in. If they’re not, and if post-open action can’t get out above 2168.00 through the opening 15 minutes, then a substantial reversal down would more likely define the session.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the pre-market Tour recording here.
The First Trade… Sunny side up.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Thursday’s gap up above Wednesday’s tractionless rally enabled the rally to probe higher without bearish consequence. As for utilizing that ability, not so much. An 8-point reaction down from 2162.00 was recovered entirely into the noon hour’s 2163.50 peak, just short of the 2164.25 overnight high. Anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report inhibited trending higher. Another 8-point drop in the afternoon ended at 2158.00-2159.00. No traction was gained, but “unfinished business below” was left outstanding at 2150.50.
Overnight action’s new info…
Thursday afternoon’s 8-point drop from 2163.50 was recovered entirely by midnight, where it awaited Europe’s opens. That triggered a surge to fresh high at 2165.25, which had been Thursday afternoon’s bias-up signal, so resistance. Its 4-point reaction back down to the surge’s origin is now being recovered.
If, then…
Yesterday’s price action suggested the market wants to respond bullishly to this morning’s Employment Situation report, regardless of the week’s “unfinished business below.”. Trending up relentlessly overnight doesn’t change that intent, but it increases the consequences of not reacting bullishly to the news. No traction was gained yesterday, so maintaining a gap open Friday beyond either end of Thursday’s 2154.00-2164.00 range would be likely to trend in that direction. If down, then unfinished business below would be in-play at 2150.50 and 2141.50. Any rally would be likely to extend to retest Sunday night’s 2177.75 “new Globex trend extreme.”.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary levels are available before an Employment Situation report.
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2170.25 | 2165.25 |
| …would target | 2176.25 | 2171.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2160.50 | 2155.50 |
| …would target | 2155.50 | 2150.50 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Thursday’s gap up above Wednesday’s tractionless rally enabled the rally to probe higher without bearish consequence. And there wasn’t much consequence to probing higher, as an 8-point reaction down was recovered entirely. But the recovery wasn’t exploited, as anxiousness ahead of Friday’s Employment Situation report restrained trending attempts.
The payrolls report is being greeted from 2158.00-2159.00 without any traction either way. So, maintaining a gap open Friday beyond either end of its 2154.00-2164.00 range would be likely to trend in that direction. If down, then unfinished business below would be in-play at 2150.50 and 2141.50. Any rally would be likely to extend to retest Sunday night’s 2177.75 “new Globex trend extreme.”
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Pre-payrolls paralysis.
SPECIAL NOTE: TODAY’S MARKET WRAP WILL START EARLY, PRE-CLOSE, AT 3:50 PM ET.
Anxiousness ahead of tomorrow morning’s pre-open Employment Situation report had suggested already that the balance of this afternoon would be contained within the range so far. In fact, the noon hour’s high peaked within 3 ticks of the 2164.25 overnight high
The afternoon’s bias environment duplicated yesterday’s behavior, generally. Trending down to 2156.75 bottomed at the bias environment’s 2:30 exit, firming into the final hour’s entry at 2159.00. Weak-handed sellers did not gain traction.
Yesterday that firming extended through a buy signal to target a fresh high. The setup’s counterpart today would be triggered above 2159.75. Meanwhile, holding 2159.00 does leave the door open to dipping deeper today.