Posts by Rod David
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After fulfilling the confirmed breakout’s minimum third required higher close Friday, Monday’s session ranged narrowly sideways. Not immediately rejecting the third higher close does make likely at least fresh intraday highs, but doesn’t make the rally any likelier to extend.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs Monday extended Friday’s fulfillment of the confirmed breakout’s minimum required third higher close. Pullbacks must hold the 1350.00 area to maintain upside momentum next targeting 1275.50.
Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s confirmed breakout was on-track to be confirmed Monday by the required eventual third higher close as the open’s gap up extended to fresh highs and ranged flat-to-higher intraday.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Having confirmed a new breakout above 173-04 by at least 1 point Friday, Monday’s gap down had room for extending back down to the buy signal and lower to 172-26 without jeopardizing the upside momentum that requires at least an eventual third higher close.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s bounce didn’t even threaten the decline’s bounce limit before resolving down to fresh lows Monday testing 39.85. Now holding 40.80-41.30 would maintain the decline’s momentum and its 36.60 target.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Barely confirming Thursday’s breakout by 1 penny Friday didn’t offer any momentum to greet the new week in rally mode, so Monday’s open easily gapped down and extended intraday to test the 3.77-3.80 buy signal as support. Lower lows would be allowable only intraday to maintain upside momentum targeting at least an eventual third higher close, .
Mid-day Update… Sentiment Extreme.
Overnight range isolated. Now morning bounce is, too.
Having exited the 2167.50 open exclusively within Friday’s range, sellers had successfully isolated the overnight highs. Plunging to 2162.25 was retraced to test Friday morning’s 2171.75 prior high as resistance. Holding its test would maintain that isolation of any probe above it.
So when the bias environment lapsed at 2171.75, another plunge fell to fresh session lows testing 2160.00.
The afternoon’s bias environment just triggered noN-bias. Not no-bias, and not bias-down. The 2164.000 bias-down signal was still being overlapped both at 1:20 and also at 1:30. Bouncing any higher would target at least 2167.00, or higher, without limitation.
Back under 2162.00 would resume the decline, essentially targeting a probe under Thursday’s 2153.50 low. And likely to extend down much deeper Tuesady into Wednesday’s open.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Aug 2, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: One of this week’s two external highlights is Japan’s cabinet deciding Tuesday on Prime Minister Abe’s stimulus package.
Rob Kaplan Speaks
6:15 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
Gallup US ECI
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Afternoon Bias
| MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2178.00 | 2172.00 |
| …would target | 2182.75 | 2177.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2169.75 | 2164.00 |
| …would target | 2164.00 | 2158.00 |
| Signal status: noN-BIAS,TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-open Review… Not married to it.
“New Globex trend extreme” isolated.
One more round of chaRTroom link roulette…
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The overnight high was complex enough to be considered a “new Globex trend extreme” that requires being retested intraday. Often the same day, but not necessarily. Especially not if the overnight highs are isolated from intraday action.
These were.
The open was deep enough to consider it testing Friday’s 2167.00 cash session close. That opened the door to isolating the overnight action. Soon its shallow bounce had resolved down sharply to 2162.25. Its recovery up to 2169.25 avoided triggering either bias signal.
That could extend back up to 2171.25-2172.00, remaining within Friday’s range, still isolating the overnight action. Meanwhile, back under 2166.00 would signal the post-open bounce had ended.
Exiting the bias environment under the open’s 2162.25 low would help confirm the overnight high’s isolation. The afternoon price action of that setup should behave very bearishly, targeting at least a probe under Thursday’s 2153.50 low..