Posts by Rod David
The First Trade & Pre-open Tour Recording… Looks familiar.
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A
Through the prior close…
Wednesday’s 10-point gap up to 2646.00 extended higher through the open to test 2651.00 resistance up to 2654.00. And it was still within the gravitational pull of 2605.00, which had been put into play Tuesday afternoon. The balance of the morning resolved down into the noon hour, probing 4 points under Tuesday’s low to 2612.50. Still short of the 2605.00 objective, the afternoon’s bounce made it back up to 2639.50. Still far short of any trend reversal signal, the last half-hour ranged narrowly sideways to close at 2638.00-2639.00, almost flat with Tuesday’s close.
Overnight action’s new info…
Last night’s action resembles the previous night’s choppy sideways range. The Globex open initially dipped 6 points to 2631.00, and then reversed to probe the afternoon highs up to 2645.00. This has been repeated, with a shallow dip into Europe’s opens snapping back up to retest the earlier 2645.00 overnight highs. So far, the range’s upper-end hasn’t broken higher, leaving a sideways range.
If, then… (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Back under 2632.00 overnight could have started to resume Wednesday morning’s decline. It was overlapped 2-3 times, chipping away at its support, and its reactions haven’t become uplegs. Retesting 2632.00 post-open would get one chance to break lower. Otherwise, holding a test of support or simply rallying would have room up to 2656.00-2666.00 before suggesting the past two sessions have been only a temporary detour. The bullish scenario could still be revived by exploiting the past two sessions’ intraday tests of last Wednesday-Thursday’s 2625.00 “lower prior highs,” which there’s no bullish reason to revisit. Meanwhile, monitor the overnight range for a late breakout attempt within 1-2 hours of the open, which is usually retraced.
First Trade…
[Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2647.00 would be likely to trigger the 2643.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2641.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2643.00 | 2643.00 |
| …would target | 2650.00 | 2650.00 |
| Bias-down: under | 2631.75 | 2632.00 |
| …would target | 2626.75 | 2627.00 |
| Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL | . | |
| BIAS VIDEOS… INTRO // EXAMPLE | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Market Wrap (recording & summary)
Gapping up 10 points Wednesday to 2646.00 wasn’t any more bullish than extending higher through the open to test 2651.00. There was that much room for noise while still being within the gravitational pull of 2605.00. The 2651.00 test did add 3 points while being overlapped during the first half-hour. But the balance of the morning resolved down into the noon hour, probing 4 points under Tuesday’s low to 2612.50.
Still short of the 2605.00 objective.
Wednesday afternoon’s bounce made it back up to 2639.50 which doesn’t reverse the trend up. But it wasn’t maintained, as the last half-hour ranged narrowly sideways. Back under 2632.00 overnight could start to resume the decline, but there is otherwise room up to 2656.00-2666.00 before suggesting the past two sessions have been only a temporary detour.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday formed a setup similar to a previous setup in the current channel that had resolved down, making this instance likelier to resolve up. Surging Wednesday morning extended to attack 1.1450, with a second consecutive higher close on Thursday able to confirm momentum reversing up.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Although still not extending back above 1283.00 since recovering it Tuesday, Wednesday also recovered a shallower dip to keep alive the upside potential.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s recovery up to 15.40 had not extended higher, remaining vulnerable to another dip. Wednesday’s dip did recover to 15.40.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down to and through 144-24 at Wednesday’s open was absorbed to retest the 145-08 buy signal, which held to avoid invalidating the recent break lower or to trigger a recovery.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s open was greeted back at the upper-end of 53.00-53.40 but only dipped to its lower-end intraday. Breaking higher beyond the narrow range would signal at least a retest of Friday’s high, if not also another breakout attempt from the same multi-session range.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Wednesday from Tuesday’s collapse was reversed down to fresh lows at 2.95 in the deepest test of “lower prior highs” that must to hold to maintain recovery potential.
Mid-day Update… Last ditch.
Noon hour bounce gains no traction.
This morning’s drop extended to 2632.50 while still being required to retrace the 2638.50 bias-up signal. Its retracement was close enough to the bias environment lapsing that its attraction was neutralized. The drop resumed down to the noon hour’s 2612.50 low.
2605.00 is still the likely objective.
Bouncing through the noon hour has extended to attack this afternoon’s 2631.25 bias-up signal. A couple of supportive levels could slow a reversal down, but back under 2622.75 would start to signal the decline has resumed.
Otherwise, probing any higher would require being retraced, but not after the bias environment starts lapsing. Even the most bearish drop isn’t required to resume today, but closing in negative territory if not also under yesterday’s 2616.50 low would be likely unless a bigger bounce were about to begin.