Posts by Rod David
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Morning Bias
| MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2174.75 | 2169.00 |
| …would target | 2181.25 | 2175.50 |
| Bias-down: under | 2169.50 | 2163.75 |
| …would target | 2163.75 | 2158.00 |
| Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Not gapping down Friday was likelier to bounce than to resume Thursday’s decline. Friday’s rally from 2158.00 to 2169.00 went further.
Closing easily above Thursday morning’s lows put back into play any objective created by Thursday’s open holding those lows. That’s 2171.25. Absorbing Thursday’s detour down to 2153.50 is likely to be rewarded. And Friday afternoon’s rally leg being inhibited by headlines might be compensated for its delay. So, testing 2171.25 would likely probe above it to 2175.50.
Reacting down again, instead, is unlikely — this pattern has been there, done that, from this area. So, extending down into Monday’s open could reverse back up to form a Pivot Reversal, or else extend down more dramatically intraday.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
We’ll game out possible opens and review the bigger picture at this weekend’s Saturday Review, beginning at 9:30 am ET in the chaRTroom here.
Daily Spot… (re-sending)
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline resumed Friday, trending down to the lowest levels since first recovering from the Brexit reaction, still targeting a retest of the Brexit reaction’s 1.0945 lows.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing above 1325.50 and 1329.00 Thursday didn’t prevent gapping back down under both Friday. If not recovered intraday, then the gap back up to Thursday’s close becomes an attraction above. But its recovery is needed before being assured that the pullback’s bottom has ended.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping back down Friday under 18.75 ranged around it intraday instead of extending lower. Closing back above 18.85 and higher would signal the pullback had ended, and a retest of the highs was underway.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Holding the 171-22 buy signal Thursday didn’t prevent probing above it overnight to 172-09. Its reaction down into Friday’s open bounced off of 170-22 to probe above the overnight high. Closing above 173-04 would confirm a recovery leg underway targeting 176-10.
Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The long-standing 43.80 target was met.Friday morning, even before the afternoon’s bearish rig count data. Closing above 44.25 would suggest the decline would start bottoming. Closing under 43.65 would signal the decline was extending
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two consecutive sessions of holding the maximum 2.65 pullback limit were squeezed Friday by the weekend’s impending illiquidity, surging to attack the 2.80 buy signal. Recovering it and 2.85 would signal and confirm the 2.98 prior high’s retest was underway, and likely to be probed.
Mid-day Update… Hovering.
Probing back into yesterday morning’s range.
The choppy open’s ranging under 2060.25 and its “dry cleaners morning” setup didn’t change how much room was allowed simply to fluctuate. The 2164.50 overnight high could be probed by 1 point before even touching the morning’s bias-up signal.
In fact, the no-bias environment attacked the overnight high to within 2-3 ticks. The noon hour extended up to 2167.25.
That’s within 1 tick of this afternoon’s bias-up signal. And a narrow range hasn’t been able to break higher for the past hour. Now it’s too late to trigger. Probing above it would be “no-bias trending,” likely to react back down into the bias range to 2165.00. Any lower would target 2165.50.
Breaking above 2168.00 could extend to probe Wednesday’s high up to 2171.25. Or higher, while still being vulnerable to reversing back down sharply before the close.