Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2167.75 | 2161.50 |
| …would target | 2175.00 | 2168.75 |
| Bias-down: under | 2158.25 | 2152.00 |
| …would target | 2153.25 | 2147.00 |
| Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
The 2168.00 “new Globex trend extreme” wasn’t retested Thursday. Its retest is required at some point intraday. Meanwhile, there is also “unfinished business below” at Thursday afternoon’s 2150.50 bias-down target. Whichever is tested first should be reversed to test the other. Either could be probed by 7 points before reversing.
Thursday’s bounces still maximized their “ineffectual optimism” before reversing. But those reversals were too shallow to be considered excessive pessimism, which would have been bullish from a contrarian perspective.
It’s not yet enough of a disparity to prevent the WedEX’s bullish bias into and out of expiration. Dipping Friday morning back into the Tuesday-Wednesday range down to 2048.00 or 2043.00 could clean out near-term pressures. But only gapping up Friday morning and extending higher would be credible for extending into a blow-off rally leg.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Laying the groundwork for a top?
Unfinished business below left outstanding.
This afternoon’s 2156.50 bias-down signal triggered. Its 2150.50 bias-down target wasn’t met. The 2156.50 bias-down signal was being tested as resistance as the bias environment lapsed — 
but it wasn’t being recovered, so its 2150.50 bias-down target becomes “unfinished business below.”
The reaction up wasn’t arbitrary. Touching this morning’s 2153.00 pullback target held. But if that satisfied selling pressure, then the bias-down signal should have been recovered on a timely basis.
The afternoon’s bias-down signal is now being probed at the final hour’s entry. Its reward should be a retest of the 2163.00 post-open highs. And the reward for that should be to retest the 2168.00 overnight high by at least 1 point.
The unfinished business below will still require being tested. Testing the overnight high first would be likely to hold, and to launch a corrective downleg.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday to the two-week old prior highs attacking 1.1200 was reversed back down immediately, spending the balance of the session ranging narrowly around unchanged. Further delaying a retest of the post-Brexit 1.0945 low would make a bigger bounce to 1.1300 likely first.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Holding the 1346.50 buy signal’s test was reversed down sharply Wednesday night to fresh reaction lows testing 1320/50. Being the decline’s second gap fill. it produced a reaction that held the adjusted 1334.00 buy signal.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Thursday held 20.05 to avoid reversing down, maintaining the positioning for a breakout targeting prior highs above 21.15.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already gapping back down Thursday to and through the 174-10/174-24 pullback limit and sell signal’s range has cut short Wednesday’s corrective bounce. The impatience suggests makes a complete recovery likely after fulfilling the nearest target at 170-16/171-08.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping is no more credible for ending the decline Thursday than was its attempt Monday, although 46.00 has little or no excuse not to hold as resistance this time while maintaining the 43.00 target.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction to EIA was muted, so potential to a lower low down to 2.65 can’t be dismissed before recovering, although now closing back above 2.80 would start to signal a rally attempt underway.
Mid-day Update… Holding on for dear life.
The open’s range is holding.
Sliding 6 points through the open from 2161.50 was recovered to a fresh post-open high at 2163.00. That’s still 5 points short of the overnight high. But the balance of the morning only stair-stepped back down to the open’s low.
At least, toward the open’s low.
The open’s low is being avoided. Less and less so, with each dip. But still avoided. That’s optimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.
Back above 2160.00 would be credible for resuming the rally. The overnight high is a “new Globex trend extreme” which requires intraday retest, probably up to 2169.00. Testing it first would likely react down even more substantially than already.
But first probing fresh post-open lows — probably also testing 2153.00 — would likely launch a retest of the overnight highs by a wider margin.