Posts by Rod David
Morning Bias
| THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) | SPX | ES |
| Bias-up: above | 2104.50 | 2097.00 |
| …would target | 2110.755 | 2103.25 |
| Bias-down: under | 2095.50 | 2088.00 |
| …would target | 2090.25 | 2082.75 |
| Signal status: BIAS-UP | FAQ | |
| INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 | ||
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be “no-bias,” and the bias signals should define the bias environment’s range.
— A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
— “Late” signals don’t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it’s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger “noN-bias,” with no bias influence.
Post-market Wrap (recording & summary)
Trending down overnight, reversing a recovery back down to fresh lows, and probing under overnight lows, all expended selling pressure. But along the way to testing 2066.00, sellers blinked — they failed to exploit the opportunity to renew the bias-down signal.
The balance of the session reversed back up to attack 2094.00 before the cash session close. It was probed minutes later. This neutralized last Friday’s 2093.00 higher prior lows.
Still, buyers didn’t gain traction for their efforts. Extending the rally without delay would require gapping up, probably above 2097.00. Not gapping up would be vulnerable to another pullback, albeit briefer and shallower down to 2082.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Pre-close View… Rewarding time.
Ready to fulfill the consequences of last week’s rally?
Closing last week above 2089.75 had created the requirement for eventually probing above the pre-Brexit high — probably up to 2125.25.
That didn’t prevent an interim pullback. Entrenching the upside probably enabled the long overdue pullback. Attacking 2105.00 Sunday night and testing 2066.00 this morning is a meaningful pullback.
Now 2092.00 is being attacked, a big shift from the two-day pullback.
The afternoon bias environment exit was still within the noon hour’s range, but the final hour’s entry was above both. Extending to fresh highs through the 3:10-3:20 window could extend sharply higher through the close.
Friday afternoon’s 2091.00 low has been probed already by 1 point. The session’s “higher prior lows” are 2093.25, and the gap back to its close is essentially 2096.75. Those are attractions — potentially also repellents, so their recovery would be critical to extending the rally Thursday.
Otherwise, back under 2085.50 would at least delay extending higher today, perhaps even dip deeper to 2080.50.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s weakness almost touched last week’s 1.1052 reaction low to the ECB commenting on QE. Its recovery was apparently only temporary after all, and fresh lows could be probed soon.
Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending higher Tuesday night fulfilled the retest of Brexit’s spike up to 1362.60, surging through its 1369.50 target to test 1377.00. Upside momentum remains intact with potential to 1385.00 so long as pullbacks now hold 1366.50.
Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding above 19.90 Wednesday doesn’t keep in-play any particular targets above, but it does avoid launching a new downleg or deeper correction.
30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight strength up to 177-04 was reversed to unchanged soon after Wednesday’s open, and then into negative territory testing 175-18 intraday. The open’s gap up to 176-28 requires an eventual retest. so long as 174-10 / 174-28 holds as support.
Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down Tuesday night stopped optimistically short of touching last week’s 45.85 low before bouncing back into positive territory to test 47.55. The decline’s momentum remains intact, next targeting 45.00-45.40.
Natural Gas Sep Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s corrective dip extended down to 2.69 Wednesday, holding “lower prior highs” before bouncing back into positive territory. This would suffice as a pullback low, but not delaying a retest of the 2.98 high close could be too optimistic ahead of Thursday’s EIA report.
Mid-day Update… Slow-playing the news.
FOMC and resistance just ahead.
This morning’s fulfilled bias-down environment attempted what two prior timing windows had tried and failed — yet another fresh low was recovered back to a prior high.
This time worked. The recovery extended up to 2090.00.
The 2065.75 low had essentially fulfilled the renewed bias-down signal. It was never in-play, since the 2071.00 bias-down target was recovered through 10:15. Lower lows were possible, despite not renewing the bias-down. But not renewing had left the door open to recovering.
And the recovery extended through the noon hour.
Now a 5-point pullback is reserving optimism ahead of the 2:00 FOMC Minutes. A knee-jerk reaction and resolution are not required to be in either direction, so be careful with any position going into the news.